OpenAI’s September 8 announcement of an internal multi-agent AI system producing a Lean-formalized proof that the 3D Navier-Stokes equations can develop a finite-time singularity under smooth forcing has driven the closely balanced 50.5% implied probability on retraction. The public write-up, PDF, and verified formalization lend credibility to the core claim and reduce immediate technical doubts, yet sharp controversy over timing and possible influence from Tristan Buckmaster and Levent Alpöge’s concurrent Euler-equation work—conducted partly on OpenAI tools—has raised priority and data-use questions that could prompt revisions or withdrawal. Traders are watching for independent mathematician verification, Clay Mathematics Institute statements, further OpenAI clarifications on model training, and any peer-review challenges that could tip sentiment toward retraction before year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
13% 機率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
是
13% 機率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI retracts its Navier-Stokes solution between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
OpenAI's Navier-Stokes solution refers to the Navier-Stokes solution that OpenAI announced on September 8, 2026 (https://openai.com/index/navier-stokes-solution/).
A qualifying retraction occurs when OpenAI officially and publicly states that the published proof was incorrect or does not solve the Navier-Stokes problem. Statements by any other party will not qualify. Revisions that do not retract the correctness of the initial proof as a solution to the Navier-Stokes problem will not qualify. Statements about the authorship, credit, or attribution of the result, or about whether it qualifies for the Millennium Prize, will not on their own qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.OpenAI’s September 8 announcement of an internal multi-agent AI system producing a Lean-formalized proof that the 3D Navier-Stokes equations can develop a finite-time singularity under smooth forcing has driven the closely balanced 50.5% implied probability on retraction. The public write-up, PDF, and verified formalization lend credibility to the core claim and reduce immediate technical doubts, yet sharp controversy over timing and possible influence from Tristan Buckmaster and Levent Alpöge’s concurrent Euler-equation work—conducted partly on OpenAI tools—has raised priority and data-use questions that could prompt revisions or withdrawal. Traders are watching for independent mathematician verification, Clay Mathematics Institute statements, further OpenAI clarifications on model training, and any peer-review challenges that could tip sentiment toward retraction before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI retracts its Navier-Stokes solution between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
OpenAI's Navier-Stokes solution refers to the Navier-Stokes solution that OpenAI announced on September 8, 2026 (https://openai.com/index/navier-stokes-solution/).
A qualifying retraction occurs when OpenAI officially and publicly states that the published proof was incorrect or does not solve the Navier-Stokes problem. Statements by any other party will not qualify. Revisions that do not retract the correctness of the initial proof as a solution to the Navier-Stokes problem will not qualify. Statements about the authorship, credit, or attribution of the result, or about whether it qualifies for the Millennium Prize, will not on their own qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OpenAI's Navier-Stokes solution refers to the Navier-Stokes solution that OpenAI announced on September 8, 2026 (https://openai.com/index/navier-stokes-solution/).
A qualifying retraction occurs when OpenAI officially and publicly states that the published proof was incorrect or does not solve the Navier-Stokes problem. Statements by any other party will not qualify. Revisions that do not retract the correctness of the initial proof as a solution to the Navier-Stokes problem will not qualify. Statements about the authorship, credit, or attribution of the result, or about whether it qualifies for the Millennium Prize, will not on their own qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Sep 9, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
交易量
$0結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Sep 9, 2026, 6:04 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI retracts its Navier-Stokes solution between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
OpenAI's Navier-Stokes solution refers to the Navier-Stokes solution that OpenAI announced on September 8, 2026 (https://openai.com/index/navier-stokes-solution/).
A qualifying retraction occurs when OpenAI officially and publicly states that the published proof was incorrect or does not solve the Navier-Stokes problem. Statements by any other party will not qualify. Revisions that do not retract the correctness of the initial proof as a solution to the Navier-Stokes problem will not qualify. Statements about the authorship, credit, or attribution of the result, or about whether it qualifies for the Millennium Prize, will not on their own qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.OpenAI’s September 8 announcement of an internal multi-agent AI system producing a Lean-formalized proof that the 3D Navier-Stokes equations can develop a finite-time singularity under smooth forcing has driven the closely balanced 50.5% implied probability on retraction. The public write-up, PDF, and verified formalization lend credibility to the core claim and reduce immediate technical doubts, yet sharp controversy over timing and possible influence from Tristan Buckmaster and Levent Alpöge’s concurrent Euler-equation work—conducted partly on OpenAI tools—has raised priority and data-use questions that could prompt revisions or withdrawal. Traders are watching for independent mathematician verification, Clay Mathematics Institute statements, further OpenAI clarifications on model training, and any peer-review challenges that could tip sentiment toward retraction before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI retracts its Navier-Stokes solution between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
OpenAI's Navier-Stokes solution refers to the Navier-Stokes solution that OpenAI announced on September 8, 2026 (https://openai.com/index/navier-stokes-solution/).
A qualifying retraction occurs when OpenAI officially and publicly states that the published proof was incorrect or does not solve the Navier-Stokes problem. Statements by any other party will not qualify. Revisions that do not retract the correctness of the initial proof as a solution to the Navier-Stokes problem will not qualify. Statements about the authorship, credit, or attribution of the result, or about whether it qualifies for the Millennium Prize, will not on their own qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OpenAI's Navier-Stokes solution refers to the Navier-Stokes solution that OpenAI announced on September 8, 2026 (https://openai.com/index/navier-stokes-solution/).
A qualifying retraction occurs when OpenAI officially and publicly states that the published proof was incorrect or does not solve the Navier-Stokes problem. Statements by any other party will not qualify. Revisions that do not retract the correctness of the initial proof as a solution to the Navier-Stokes problem will not qualify. Statements about the authorship, credit, or attribution of the result, or about whether it qualifies for the Millennium Prize, will not on their own qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$0結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Sep 9, 2026, 6:04 PM ETOpenAI’s September 8 announcement of an internal multi-agent AI system producing a Lean-formalized proof that the 3D Navier-Stokes equations can develop a finite-time singularity under smooth forcing has driven the closely balanced 50.5% implied probability on retraction. The public write-up, PDF, and verified formalization lend credibility to the core claim and reduce immediate technical doubts, yet sharp controversy over timing and possible influence from Tristan Buckmaster and Levent Alpöge’s concurrent Euler-equation work—conducted partly on OpenAI tools—has raised priority and data-use questions that could prompt revisions or withdrawal. Traders are watching for independent mathematician verification, Clay Mathematics Institute statements, further OpenAI clarifications on model training, and any peer-review challenges that could tip sentiment toward retraction before year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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