Skip to main content
icon for OpenAI宣布已在2027年之前實現AGI ？
科技·Llm

OpenAI宣布已在2027年之前實現AGI ？

icon for OpenAI宣布已在2027年之前實現AGI ？
科技·Llm

OpenAI宣布已在2027年之前實現AGI ？

是

9% 機率
Polymarket

$94,915 交易量

是

9% 機率
Polymarket

$94,915 交易量

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 91.5% implied probability that OpenAI will not announce AGI before 2027 because the company continues to frame its latest releases, such as GPT-5.6 variants, as frontier large language models with improved reasoning rather than systems meeting the threshold for artificial general intelligence. OpenAI’s June 2026 plan emphasizes scaling access and automated research in a third phase, while projecting only modest scientific discoveries in 2026 and more substantial ones after 2028. Internal timelines from executives and researchers cluster around 2027–2028, yet the firm requires independent verification for any AGI claim and has avoided formal declarations despite rapid capability gains. A surprise breakthrough in agentic systems or benchmark performance could still shift sentiment before year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$94,915
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Oct 28, 2025, 11:01 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 91.5% implied probability that OpenAI will not announce AGI before 2027 because the company continues to frame its latest releases, such as GPT-5.6 variants, as frontier large language models with improved reasoning rather than systems meeting the threshold for artificial general intelligence. OpenAI’s June 2026 plan emphasizes scaling access and automated research in a third phase, while projecting only modest scientific discoveries in 2026 and more substantial ones after 2028. Internal timelines from executives and researchers cluster around 2027–2028, yet the firm requires independent verification for any AGI claim and has avoided formal declarations despite rapid capability gains. A surprise breakthrough in agentic systems or benchmark performance could still shift sentiment before year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$94,915
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Oct 28, 2025, 11:01 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

相關

icon for OpenAI會在2026年宣布一款可夾式穿戴設備嗎？

OpenAI會在2026年宣布一款可夾式穿戴設備嗎？

17%
是
icon for OpenAI會在2027年前被收購嗎？

OpenAI會在2027年前被收購嗎？

4%
是
icon for OpenAI會在2027年前發行代幣嗎？

OpenAI會在2027年前發行代幣嗎？

2%
是

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"OpenAI宣布已在2027年之前實現AGI ？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "OpenAI 宣布在 2027 年之前實現了 AGI？" at 9%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 9¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 9% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "OpenAI宣布已在2027年之前實現AGI ？" has generated $94.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 28, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "OpenAI宣布已在2027年之前實現AGI ？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "OpenAI宣布已在2027年之前實現AGI ？" is "OpenAI 宣布在 2027 年之前實現了 AGI？" at just 9%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "OpenAI宣布已在2027年之前實現AGI ？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.