Anthropic holds a strong 77.7% implied probability for second place on the Code Arena WebDev leaderboard by end-September because OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra overtook Claude Fable 5.1 by 35 points in early September community votes, reflecting superior multi-step web-app construction and tool use. Anthropic’s recent Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 releases remain competitive on related benchmarks such as Terminal-Bench and SWE-bench Verified, supporting trader consensus that it trails only OpenAI among frontier labs. Lower odds for OpenAI at second (18.9%) and minimal shares for Moonshot, Alibaba, and others underscore the narrow gap between the top two while highlighting limited recent gains from competitors in live Code Arena evaluations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Anthropic 78.4%
OpenAI 18.7%
阿里巴巴 2.7%
Moonshot 2.4%
$68,735 交易量
$68,735 交易量
2026-09-30
Anthropic
78%
OpenAI
19%
阿里巴巴
3%
Moonshot
2%
SpaceXAI
1%
騰訊
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Meta
<1%
<1%
字節跳動
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
小米
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Poolside
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Anthropic 78.4%
OpenAI 18.7%
阿里巴巴 2.7%
Moonshot 2.4%
$68,735 交易量
$68,735 交易量
2026-09-30
Anthropic
$13,593 交易量
78%
OpenAI
$7,977 交易量
19%
阿里巴巴
$16,925 交易量
3%
Moonshot
$12,101 交易量
2%
SpaceXAI
$2,291 交易量
1%
騰訊
$1,731 交易量
<1%
Z.ai
$1,852 交易量
<1%
Meta
$1,699 交易量
<1%
$1,642 交易量
<1%
字節跳動
$3,054 交易量
<1%
MiniMax
$598 交易量
<1%
小米
$1,468 交易量
<1%
DeepSeek
$1,022 交易量
<1%
Thinky
$617 交易量
<1%
Poolside
$1,035 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$1,130 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic holds a strong 77.7% implied probability for second place on the Code Arena WebDev leaderboard by end-September because OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra overtook Claude Fable 5.1 by 35 points in early September community votes, reflecting superior multi-step web-app construction and tool use. Anthropic’s recent Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 releases remain competitive on related benchmarks such as Terminal-Bench and SWE-bench Verified, supporting trader consensus that it trails only OpenAI among frontier labs. Lower odds for OpenAI at second (18.9%) and minimal shares for Moonshot, Alibaba, and others underscore the narrow gap between the top two while highlighting limited recent gains from competitors in live Code Arena evaluations.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市場開放時間： Jul 24, 2026, 7:45 PM ET
交易量
$68,735結束日期
2026-10-01市場開放時間
Jul 24, 2026, 7:45 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic holds a strong 77.7% implied probability for second place on the Code Arena WebDev leaderboard by end-September because OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra overtook Claude Fable 5.1 by 35 points in early September community votes, reflecting superior multi-step web-app construction and tool use. Anthropic’s recent Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 releases remain competitive on related benchmarks such as Terminal-Bench and SWE-bench Verified, supporting trader consensus that it trails only OpenAI among frontier labs. Lower odds for OpenAI at second (18.9%) and minimal shares for Moonshot, Alibaba, and others underscore the narrow gap between the top two while highlighting limited recent gains from competitors in live Code Arena evaluations.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$68,735結束日期
2026-10-01市場開放時間
Jul 24, 2026, 7:45 PM ETAnthropic holds a strong 77.7% implied probability for second place on the Code Arena WebDev leaderboard by end-September because OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra overtook Claude Fable 5.1 by 35 points in early September community votes, reflecting superior multi-step web-app construction and tool use. Anthropic’s recent Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 releases remain competitive on related benchmarks such as Terminal-Bench and SWE-bench Verified, supporting trader consensus that it trails only OpenAI among frontier labs. Lower odds for OpenAI at second (18.9%) and minimal shares for Moonshot, Alibaba, and others underscore the narrow gap between the top two while highlighting limited recent gains from competitors in live Code Arena evaluations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions