Traders see a tight race for the top LiveBench mathematics score by end-September 2026, with Anthropic holding the highest implied odds at 33.5% amid strong recent Claude 5 Opus and Fable 5 results that leverage high-effort thinking modes to reach 95%+ on math subsets. OpenAI follows at 24.5%, buoyed by GPT-5.5/5.6 variants demonstrating comparable gains through iterative scaling and specialized reasoning chains. Other labs including Mistral, Google, and Tencent trail as frontier models from the leading two continue to trade incremental benchmark edges through post-training refinements and test-time compute. Key swing factors include any new official releases or capability jumps before the September cutoff, as LiveBench’s monthly fresh questions reward models that sustain math leadership without contamination.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於ByteDance 60%
Anthropic 34%
微軟 33%
StepFun 29%
最新
最新
2026-09-30
ByteDance
60%
Anthropic
34%
微軟
33%
StepFun
29%
阿里巴巴
23%
Mistral
19%
Nvidia
17%
SpaceXAI
16%
Z.ai
15%
Thinky
15%
OpenAI
18%
Moonshot
6%
Baidu
5%
Amazon
5%
MiniMax
5%
Meta
5%
16%
DeepSeek
5%
Meituan
5%
Xiaomi
4%
騰訊
1%
ByteDance 60%
Anthropic 34%
微軟 33%
StepFun 29%
最新
最新
2026-09-30
ByteDance
$54 交易量
60%
Anthropic
$52 交易量
34%
微軟
$72 交易量
33%
StepFun
$72 交易量
29%
阿里巴巴
$52 交易量
23%
Mistral
$52 交易量
19%
Nvidia
$52 交易量
17%
SpaceXAI
$52 交易量
16%
Z.ai
$52 交易量
15%
Thinky
$72 交易量
15%
OpenAI
$63 交易量
18%
Moonshot
$52 交易量
6%
Baidu
$52 交易量
5%
Amazon
$53 交易量
5%
MiniMax
$53 交易量
5%
Meta
$52 交易量
5%
$52 交易量
16%
DeepSeek
$52 交易量
5%
Meituan
$52 交易量
5%
Xiaomi
$44 交易量
4%
騰訊
$76 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Traders see a tight race for the top LiveBench mathematics score by end-September 2026, with Anthropic holding the highest implied odds at 33.5% amid strong recent Claude 5 Opus and Fable 5 results that leverage high-effort thinking modes to reach 95%+ on math subsets. OpenAI follows at 24.5%, buoyed by GPT-5.5/5.6 variants demonstrating comparable gains through iterative scaling and specialized reasoning chains. Other labs including Mistral, Google, and Tencent trail as frontier models from the leading two continue to trade incremental benchmark edges through post-training refinements and test-time compute. Key swing factors include any new official releases or capability jumps before the September cutoff, as LiveBench’s monthly fresh questions reward models that sustain math leadership without contamination.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
市場開放時間： Jul 29, 2026, 6:14 PM ET
交易量
$1,189結束日期
2026-09-30市場開放時間
Jul 29, 2026, 6:14 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Traders see a tight race for the top LiveBench mathematics score by end-September 2026, with Anthropic holding the highest implied odds at 33.5% amid strong recent Claude 5 Opus and Fable 5 results that leverage high-effort thinking modes to reach 95%+ on math subsets. OpenAI follows at 24.5%, buoyed by GPT-5.5/5.6 variants demonstrating comparable gains through iterative scaling and specialized reasoning chains. Other labs including Mistral, Google, and Tencent trail as frontier models from the leading two continue to trade incremental benchmark edges through post-training refinements and test-time compute. Key swing factors include any new official releases or capability jumps before the September cutoff, as LiveBench’s monthly fresh questions reward models that sustain math leadership without contamination.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
交易量
$1,189結束日期
2026-09-30市場開放時間
Jul 29, 2026, 6:14 PM ETTraders see a tight race for the top LiveBench mathematics score by end-September 2026, with Anthropic holding the highest implied odds at 33.5% amid strong recent Claude 5 Opus and Fable 5 results that leverage high-effort thinking modes to reach 95%+ on math subsets. OpenAI follows at 24.5%, buoyed by GPT-5.5/5.6 variants demonstrating comparable gains through iterative scaling and specialized reasoning chains. Other labs including Mistral, Google, and Tencent trail as frontier models from the leading two continue to trade incremental benchmark edges through post-training refinements and test-time compute. Key swing factors include any new official releases or capability jumps before the September cutoff, as LiveBench’s monthly fresh questions reward models that sustain math leadership without contamination.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions