Recent meteorological observations and model consensus from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration confirm Shanghai’s minimum temperature on August 18 will reach 26°C, driving the market’s 100% implied probability. Mid-August conditions under the western Pacific subtropical high typically produce stable nocturnal temperatures around this level, with urban heat retention limiting further cooling and aligning closely with historical August minima. Forecasters note narrow uncertainty ranges in short-range guidance, supporting the strong trader consensus. A sudden unforecasted cold surge or localized station measurement discrepancy could still alter the recorded low, though such shifts appear unlikely given current atmospheric stability.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月18日上海最低溫度？
8月18日上海最低溫度？
26°C 100.0%
20°C或以下 <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$19,581 交易量
$19,581 交易量
2026-08-18
20°C或以下
否
21°C
否
22°C
否
23°C
否
24°C
否
25°C
否
26°C
是
27°C
否
28°C
否
29°C
否
30°C或以上
否
26°C 100.0%
20°C或以下 <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$19,581 交易量
$19,581 交易量
2026-08-18
20°C或以下
$462 交易量
否
21°C
$462 交易量
否
22°C
$331 交易量
否
23°C
$436 交易量
否
24°C
$674 交易量
否
25°C
$3,930 交易量
否
26°C
$3,842 交易量
是
27°C
$6,750 交易量
否
28°C
$1,646 交易量
否
29°C
$546 交易量
否
30°C或以上
$502 交易量
否
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent meteorological observations and model consensus from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration confirm Shanghai’s minimum temperature on August 18 will reach 26°C, driving the market’s 100% implied probability. Mid-August conditions under the western Pacific subtropical high typically produce stable nocturnal temperatures around this level, with urban heat retention limiting further cooling and aligning closely with historical August minima. Forecasters note narrow uncertainty ranges in short-range guidance, supporting the strong trader consensus. A sudden unforecasted cold surge or localized station measurement discrepancy could still alter the recorded low, though such shifts appear unlikely given current atmospheric stability.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 16, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
交易量
$19,581結束日期
2026-08-18市場開放時間
Aug 16, 2026, 12:28 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent meteorological observations and model consensus from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration confirm Shanghai’s minimum temperature on August 18 will reach 26°C, driving the market’s 100% implied probability. Mid-August conditions under the western Pacific subtropical high typically produce stable nocturnal temperatures around this level, with urban heat retention limiting further cooling and aligning closely with historical August minima. Forecasters note narrow uncertainty ranges in short-range guidance, supporting the strong trader consensus. A sudden unforecasted cold surge or localized station measurement discrepancy could still alter the recorded low, though such shifts appear unlikely given current atmospheric stability.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$19,581結束日期
2026-08-18市場開放時間
Aug 16, 2026, 12:28 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
Recent meteorological observations and model consensus from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration confirm Shanghai’s minimum temperature on August 18 will reach 26°C, driving the market’s 100% implied probability. Mid-August conditions under the western Pacific subtropical high typically produce stable nocturnal temperatures around this level, with urban heat retention limiting further cooling and aligning closely with historical August minima. Forecasters note narrow uncertainty ranges in short-range guidance, supporting the strong trader consensus. A sudden unforecasted cold surge or localized station measurement discrepancy could still alter the recorded low, though such shifts appear unlikely given current atmospheric stability.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions