Recent short-range forecasts from the UK Met Office, BBC, and other models indicate Warsaw's August 21 maximum near 25–26°C under light southwesterly flow and variable cloud cover, driving the market's tight contest between the 25°C (32%) and 26°C (37.5%) outcomes. This aligns with August climatology averaging 23°C while allowing modest warming from southerly advection, though possible light showers or breaks of sun could cap peaks. Ensemble guidance shows limited upside beyond 27°C given the modest thermal setup, explaining the steep drop to 16.5% for 27°C or higher. Traders weigh these near-term model updates against historical variability in daily maxima as resolution approaches.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月21日華沙的最高溫度?
26°C 38%
25°C 32%
27°C 17%
24°C 9%
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
1%
23°C
3%
24°C
9%
25°C
32%
26°C
38%
27°C
17%
28°C or higher
4%
26°C 38%
25°C 32%
27°C 17%
24°C 9%
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
1%
23°C
3%
24°C
9%
25°C
32%
26°C
38%
27°C
17%
28°C or higher
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間: Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent short-range forecasts from the UK Met Office, BBC, and other models indicate Warsaw's August 21 maximum near 25–26°C under light southwesterly flow and variable cloud cover, driving the market's tight contest between the 25°C (32%) and 26°C (37.5%) outcomes. This aligns with August climatology averaging 23°C while allowing modest warming from southerly advection, though possible light showers or breaks of sun could cap peaks. Ensemble guidance shows limited upside beyond 27°C given the modest thermal setup, explaining the steep drop to 16.5% for 27°C or higher. Traders weigh these near-term model updates against historical variability in daily maxima as resolution approaches.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於

警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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