Recent forecast guidance from international and regional models positions 26–27°C as the most likely range for Shanghai’s overnight minimum on August 21, aligning with the market’s 81% combined implied probability on those two outcomes. Persistent high humidity, light southerly flow, and scattered thundershowers expected through the period are limiting radiative cooling while preventing significant cold-air advection. Historical late-August climatology shows average lows near 26°C, and current ensemble spreads remain narrow with little indication of a sharp drop or spike. Updated runs from the Shanghai Meteorological Observatory and global models over the next 24–48 hours represent the key catalysts that could shift trader positioning ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月21日上海最低溫度？
8月21日上海最低溫度？
27°C 55%
26°C 36%
25°C 7%
28°C 7%
最新
最新
2026-08-21
22°C或以下
<1%
23°C
3%
24°C
1%
25°C
7%
26°C
27%
27°C
55%
28°C
7%
29°C
3%
30°C
1%
31°C
<1%
32°C或以上
<1%
27°C 55%
26°C 36%
25°C 7%
28°C 7%
最新
最新
2026-08-21
22°C或以下
$15 交易量
<1%
23°C
$5 交易量
3%
24°C
$273 交易量
1%
25°C
$74 交易量
7%
26°C
$30 交易量
27%
27°C
$262 交易量
55%
28°C
$20 交易量
7%
29°C
$33 交易量
3%
30°C
$15 交易量
1%
31°C
$27 交易量
<1%
32°C或以上
$33 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from international and regional models positions 26–27°C as the most likely range for Shanghai’s overnight minimum on August 21, aligning with the market’s 81% combined implied probability on those two outcomes. Persistent high humidity, light southerly flow, and scattered thundershowers expected through the period are limiting radiative cooling while preventing significant cold-air advection. Historical late-August climatology shows average lows near 26°C, and current ensemble spreads remain narrow with little indication of a sharp drop or spike. Updated runs from the Shanghai Meteorological Observatory and global models over the next 24–48 hours represent the key catalysts that could shift trader positioning ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 19, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
交易量
$788結束日期
2026-08-21市場開放時間
Aug 19, 2026, 12:28 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from international and regional models positions 26–27°C as the most likely range for Shanghai’s overnight minimum on August 21, aligning with the market’s 81% combined implied probability on those two outcomes. Persistent high humidity, light southerly flow, and scattered thundershowers expected through the period are limiting radiative cooling while preventing significant cold-air advection. Historical late-August climatology shows average lows near 26°C, and current ensemble spreads remain narrow with little indication of a sharp drop or spike. Updated runs from the Shanghai Meteorological Observatory and global models over the next 24–48 hours represent the key catalysts that could shift trader positioning ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$788結束日期
2026-08-21市場開放時間
Aug 19, 2026, 12:28 AM ETRecent forecast guidance from international and regional models positions 26–27°C as the most likely range for Shanghai’s overnight minimum on August 21, aligning with the market’s 81% combined implied probability on those two outcomes. Persistent high humidity, light southerly flow, and scattered thundershowers expected through the period are limiting radiative cooling while preventing significant cold-air advection. Historical late-August climatology shows average lows near 26°C, and current ensemble spreads remain narrow with little indication of a sharp drop or spike. Updated runs from the Shanghai Meteorological Observatory and global models over the next 24–48 hours represent the key catalysts that could shift trader positioning ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions