Recent short-range forecasts from global and regional models show peak afternoon temperatures in Wuhan hovering near 36–38°C on August 4, consistent with typical early-August subtropical highs of 34–36°C and the market’s clustered probabilities. Key differentiators include evolving cloud cover and moisture from the East Asian monsoon, which can suppress maxima by 1–2°C via afternoon convection, versus clear-sky subsidence that favors readings near 38°C. Urban heat-island effects and low wind speeds further support the upper end of the distribution, while any earlier frontal passage or increased humidity would cap readings closer to 36°C. Updated model runs and official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration over the next 48 hours remain the primary catalysts for shifts in trader consensus.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月4日武漢氣溫最高？
8月4日武漢氣溫最高？
38°C 36%
37°C 33%
36°C 25%
35°C 6%
最新
最新
2026-08-04
32°C或以下
<1%
33°C
2%
34°C
4%
35°C
6%
36°C
25%
37°C
33%
38°C
36%
39°C
6%
40°C
3%
41°C
1%
42°C或更高
1%
38°C 36%
37°C 33%
36°C 25%
35°C 6%
最新
最新
2026-08-04
32°C或以下
$38 交易量
<1%
33°C
$20 交易量
2%
34°C
$11 交易量
4%
35°C
$0 交易量
6%
36°C
$49 交易量
25%
37°C
$44 交易量
33%
38°C
$435 交易量
36%
39°C
$13 交易量
6%
40°C
$22 交易量
3%
41°C
$52 交易量
1%
42°C或更高
$25 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecasts from global and regional models show peak afternoon temperatures in Wuhan hovering near 36–38°C on August 4, consistent with typical early-August subtropical highs of 34–36°C and the market’s clustered probabilities. Key differentiators include evolving cloud cover and moisture from the East Asian monsoon, which can suppress maxima by 1–2°C via afternoon convection, versus clear-sky subsidence that favors readings near 38°C. Urban heat-island effects and low wind speeds further support the upper end of the distribution, while any earlier frontal passage or increased humidity would cap readings closer to 36°C. Updated model runs and official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration over the next 48 hours remain the primary catalysts for shifts in trader consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 2, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
交易量
$709結束日期
2026-08-04市場開放時間
Aug 2, 2026, 12:04 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecasts from global and regional models show peak afternoon temperatures in Wuhan hovering near 36–38°C on August 4, consistent with typical early-August subtropical highs of 34–36°C and the market’s clustered probabilities. Key differentiators include evolving cloud cover and moisture from the East Asian monsoon, which can suppress maxima by 1–2°C via afternoon convection, versus clear-sky subsidence that favors readings near 38°C. Urban heat-island effects and low wind speeds further support the upper end of the distribution, while any earlier frontal passage or increased humidity would cap readings closer to 36°C. Updated model runs and official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration over the next 48 hours remain the primary catalysts for shifts in trader consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$709結束日期
2026-08-04市場開放時間
Aug 2, 2026, 12:04 AM ETRecent short-range forecasts from global and regional models show peak afternoon temperatures in Wuhan hovering near 36–38°C on August 4, consistent with typical early-August subtropical highs of 34–36°C and the market’s clustered probabilities. Key differentiators include evolving cloud cover and moisture from the East Asian monsoon, which can suppress maxima by 1–2°C via afternoon convection, versus clear-sky subsidence that favors readings near 38°C. Urban heat-island effects and low wind speeds further support the upper end of the distribution, while any earlier frontal passage or increased humidity would cap readings closer to 36°C. Updated model runs and official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration over the next 48 hours remain the primary catalysts for shifts in trader consensus.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions