Recent National Weather Service model guidance highlights northerly flow and a cool air mass advection into the Midwest, producing forecast overnight lows near or below seasonal normals of 64°F for late August in Chicago. Ensemble spreads from GFS and ECMWF runs create uncertainty around radiational cooling rates under partly clear skies, moderated by Lake Michigan's thermal influence and urban heat island effects that can raise minimums by several degrees versus outlying areas. Trader positioning reflects this variability, with closely matched implied probabilities across the 47°F-or-below, 56-59°F, and 56-57°F bins driven by the potential for stronger-than-expected cooling versus lingering warmth. Updated short-range model consensus and the final NWS forecast before sunset on August 23 will likely refine resolution criteria tied to official O'Hare observations.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Chicago on August 24?
Lowest temperature in Chicago on August 24?
47°F or below 71%
58-59°F 37%
56-57°F 26%
66°F or higher 26%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 24, 2026
47°F or below
71%
48-49°F
9%
50-51°F
16%
52-53°F
13%
54-55°F
20%
56-57°F
26%
58-59°F
34%
60-61°F
14%
62-63°F
13%
64-65°F
8%
66°F or higher
26%
47°F or below 71%
58-59°F 37%
56-57°F 26%
66°F or higher 26%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 24, 2026
47°F or below
$5 Обс.
71%
48-49°F
$55 Обс.
9%
50-51°F
$55 Обс.
16%
52-53°F
$0 Обс.
13%
54-55°F
$0 Обс.
20%
56-57°F
$0 Обс.
26%
58-59°F
$5 Обс.
34%
60-61°F
$0 Обс.
14%
62-63°F
$0 Обс.
13%
64-65°F
$20 Обс.
8%
66°F or higher
$15 Обс.
26%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service model guidance highlights northerly flow and a cool air mass advection into the Midwest, producing forecast overnight lows near or below seasonal normals of 64°F for late August in Chicago. Ensemble spreads from GFS and ECMWF runs create uncertainty around radiational cooling rates under partly clear skies, moderated by Lake Michigan's thermal influence and urban heat island effects that can raise minimums by several degrees versus outlying areas. Trader positioning reflects this variability, with closely matched implied probabilities across the 47°F-or-below, 56-59°F, and 56-57°F bins driven by the potential for stronger-than-expected cooling versus lingering warmth. Updated short-range model consensus and the final NWS forecast before sunset on August 23 will likely refine resolution criteria tied to official O'Hare observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 22, 2026, 9:29 PM ET
Обсяг
$155Дата завершення
Aug 24, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 22, 2026, 9:29 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service model guidance highlights northerly flow and a cool air mass advection into the Midwest, producing forecast overnight lows near or below seasonal normals of 64°F for late August in Chicago. Ensemble spreads from GFS and ECMWF runs create uncertainty around radiational cooling rates under partly clear skies, moderated by Lake Michigan's thermal influence and urban heat island effects that can raise minimums by several degrees versus outlying areas. Trader positioning reflects this variability, with closely matched implied probabilities across the 47°F-or-below, 56-59°F, and 56-57°F bins driven by the potential for stronger-than-expected cooling versus lingering warmth. Updated short-range model consensus and the final NWS forecast before sunset on August 23 will likely refine resolution criteria tied to official O'Hare observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$155Дата завершення
Aug 24, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 22, 2026, 9:29 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service model guidance highlights northerly flow and a cool air mass advection into the Midwest, producing forecast overnight lows near or below seasonal normals of 64°F for late August in Chicago. Ensemble spreads from GFS and ECMWF runs create uncertainty around radiational cooling rates under partly clear skies, moderated by Lake Michigan's thermal influence and urban heat island effects that can raise minimums by several degrees versus outlying areas. Trader positioning reflects this variability, with closely matched implied probabilities across the 47°F-or-below, 56-59°F, and 56-57°F bins driven by the potential for stronger-than-expected cooling versus lingering warmth. Updated short-range model consensus and the final NWS forecast before sunset on August 23 will likely refine resolution criteria tied to official O'Hare observations.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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