Recent monsoon-driven rainfall and persistent cloud cover across the Pearl River Delta are the dominant factors capping trader expectations for Guangzhou's August 25 maximum near 31–33 °C. Official guidance highlights 60–80 % precipitation chances that limit solar insolation while promoting evaporative cooling, keeping daily highs below late-summer peaks. Historical August climatology shows average maxima around 32–34 °C, yet the current pattern aligns with observed suppression during active monsoon episodes. Market-implied odds cluster tightly on 32 °C and 33 °C because forecast model runs still differ on rainfall timing and intensity, creating genuine uncertainty around the precise threshold. Newer model updates and regional observations expected within 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Guangzhou on August 25?
Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 25?
32°C 27%
31°C 21%
33°C 21%
34°C 13%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 25, 2026
25°C or below
1%
26°C
2%
27°C
2%
28°C
6%
29°C
11%
30°C
12%
31°C
21%
32°C
27%
33°C
21%
34°C
13%
35°C or higher
11%
32°C 27%
31°C 21%
33°C 21%
34°C 13%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 25, 2026
25°C or below
$20 Обс.
1%
26°C
$5 Обс.
2%
27°C
$5 Обс.
2%
28°C
$122 Обс.
6%
29°C
$0 Обс.
11%
30°C
$2 Обс.
12%
31°C
$0 Обс.
21%
32°C
$46 Обс.
27%
33°C
$0 Обс.
21%
34°C
$0 Обс.
13%
35°C or higher
$0 Обс.
11%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent monsoon-driven rainfall and persistent cloud cover across the Pearl River Delta are the dominant factors capping trader expectations for Guangzhou's August 25 maximum near 31–33 °C. Official guidance highlights 60–80 % precipitation chances that limit solar insolation while promoting evaporative cooling, keeping daily highs below late-summer peaks. Historical August climatology shows average maxima around 32–34 °C, yet the current pattern aligns with observed suppression during active monsoon episodes. Market-implied odds cluster tightly on 32 °C and 33 °C because forecast model runs still differ on rainfall timing and intensity, creating genuine uncertainty around the precise threshold. Newer model updates and regional observations expected within 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 23, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Обсяг
$200Дата завершення
Aug 25, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 23, 2026, 12:58 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent monsoon-driven rainfall and persistent cloud cover across the Pearl River Delta are the dominant factors capping trader expectations for Guangzhou's August 25 maximum near 31–33 °C. Official guidance highlights 60–80 % precipitation chances that limit solar insolation while promoting evaporative cooling, keeping daily highs below late-summer peaks. Historical August climatology shows average maxima around 32–34 °C, yet the current pattern aligns with observed suppression during active monsoon episodes. Market-implied odds cluster tightly on 32 °C and 33 °C because forecast model runs still differ on rainfall timing and intensity, creating genuine uncertainty around the precise threshold. Newer model updates and regional observations expected within 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$200Дата завершення
Aug 25, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 23, 2026, 12:58 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent monsoon-driven rainfall and persistent cloud cover across the Pearl River Delta are the dominant factors capping trader expectations for Guangzhou's August 25 maximum near 31–33 °C. Official guidance highlights 60–80 % precipitation chances that limit solar insolation while promoting evaporative cooling, keeping daily highs below late-summer peaks. Historical August climatology shows average maxima around 32–34 °C, yet the current pattern aligns with observed suppression during active monsoon episodes. Market-implied odds cluster tightly on 32 °C and 33 °C because forecast model runs still differ on rainfall timing and intensity, creating genuine uncertainty around the precise threshold. Newer model updates and regional observations expected within 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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