Latest official and ensemble forecasts for Chengdu on August 23, 2026, show peak daytime temperatures centered on 31–32 °C under typical late-summer subtropical conditions, with moderate humidity, variable cloud cover, and scattered showers or thunderstorms that cap extreme heating. These values align with climatological normals for the Sichuan Basin in late August, where afternoon maxima rarely exceed 34 °C without a strong high-pressure ridge or clear skies. Model consensus from recent runs places the most probable outcomes at 31 °C or 32 °C, explaining the heavy market weighting there, while lower (30 °C) and higher (33 °C) probabilities reflect residual uncertainty in timing of any convective cooling or brief clearing. No unusual heat event or model shift has emerged in the past 48 hours to alter this distribution.