**Trader consensus on a 35°C high in Busan on August 23, 2026, rests on official Korea Meteorological Administration forecasts and model consensus showing peak daytime temperatures reaching that threshold under mostly clear skies, light southwesterly flow, and elevated humidity typical of late-summer conditions.** Afternoon readings from automated stations have already approached 33–34°C with continued warming expected into the early evening before radiative cooling begins. Historical climatology for Busan in late August supports highs in the low-to-mid 30s°C when subtropical high pressure dominates without significant cloud cover or precipitation. The 100% market-implied probability reflects near-certainty in the absence of major forecast revisions. Realistic challenges include stronger-than-expected convective showers or increased cloudiness that could cap the peak 1–2°C lower, or minor station-specific measurement differences at the official Busan site.