The southwest monsoon currently dominating Luzon drives the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 30–32°C for Manila’s August 25 high, as persistent cloud cover, scattered to widespread thunderstorms, and moderate-to-strong southwesterly winds limit solar heating and promote evaporative cooling. PAGASA observations and extended outlooks confirm this pattern through at least midweek, with recent daily maxima near 31°C under similar conditions and model guidance showing only modest day-to-day variability tied to rainfall timing. Higher outcomes above 33°C remain low-probability given the monsoon’s suppression of insolation, while cooler results would require unusually prolonged heavy rain; traders weigh the latest model runs and PAGASA updates for any shifts in monsoon intensity ahead of the 24-hour observation window.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Manila on August 25?
Highest temperature in Manila on August 25?
31°C 31%
32°C 27%
30°C 16%
33°C 14%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 25, 2026
26°C or below
2%
27°C
2%
28°C
5%
29°C
8%
30°C
16%
31°C
31%
32°C
27%
33°C
14%
34°C
2%
35°C
2%
36°C or higher
1%
31°C 31%
32°C 27%
30°C 16%
33°C 14%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 25, 2026
26°C or below
$5 Обс.
2%
27°C
$162 Обс.
2%
28°C
$5 Обс.
5%
29°C
$20 Обс.
8%
30°C
$0 Обс.
16%
31°C
$0 Обс.
31%
32°C
$0 Обс.
27%
33°C
$0 Обс.
14%
34°C
$0 Обс.
2%
35°C
$5 Обс.
2%
36°C or higher
$5 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The southwest monsoon currently dominating Luzon drives the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 30–32°C for Manila’s August 25 high, as persistent cloud cover, scattered to widespread thunderstorms, and moderate-to-strong southwesterly winds limit solar heating and promote evaporative cooling. PAGASA observations and extended outlooks confirm this pattern through at least midweek, with recent daily maxima near 31°C under similar conditions and model guidance showing only modest day-to-day variability tied to rainfall timing. Higher outcomes above 33°C remain low-probability given the monsoon’s suppression of insolation, while cooler results would require unusually prolonged heavy rain; traders weigh the latest model runs and PAGASA updates for any shifts in monsoon intensity ahead of the 24-hour observation window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 23, 2026, 12:59 AM ET
Обсяг
$202Дата завершення
Aug 25, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 23, 2026, 12:59 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The southwest monsoon currently dominating Luzon drives the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 30–32°C for Manila’s August 25 high, as persistent cloud cover, scattered to widespread thunderstorms, and moderate-to-strong southwesterly winds limit solar heating and promote evaporative cooling. PAGASA observations and extended outlooks confirm this pattern through at least midweek, with recent daily maxima near 31°C under similar conditions and model guidance showing only modest day-to-day variability tied to rainfall timing. Higher outcomes above 33°C remain low-probability given the monsoon’s suppression of insolation, while cooler results would require unusually prolonged heavy rain; traders weigh the latest model runs and PAGASA updates for any shifts in monsoon intensity ahead of the 24-hour observation window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$202Дата завершення
Aug 25, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 23, 2026, 12:59 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...The southwest monsoon currently dominating Luzon drives the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 30–32°C for Manila’s August 25 high, as persistent cloud cover, scattered to widespread thunderstorms, and moderate-to-strong southwesterly winds limit solar heating and promote evaporative cooling. PAGASA observations and extended outlooks confirm this pattern through at least midweek, with recent daily maxima near 31°C under similar conditions and model guidance showing only modest day-to-day variability tied to rainfall timing. Higher outcomes above 33°C remain low-probability given the monsoon’s suppression of insolation, while cooler results would require unusually prolonged heavy rain; traders weigh the latest model runs and PAGASA updates for any shifts in monsoon intensity ahead of the 24-hour observation window.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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