Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) conditions dominate Manila's outlook for August 24, driving the market's clustering around 30–32°C with combined implied probability near 74%. Official PAGASA guidance projects daytime highs near 30–32°C amid 40–80% rain chances, scattered thunderstorms, and extensive cloud cover that suppresses insolation and caps afternoon peaks. Trader dispersion across 29–33°C reflects uncertainty in convective timing and intensity: sustained heavy rainfall favors the lower end while brief clearing or reduced thunderstorm activity could permit brief spikes to 32–33°C. Historical August baselines near 30–31°C provide context, yet model variability in monsoon strength keeps resolution sensitive to the latest forecast updates.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Manila on August 24?
Highest temperature in Manila on August 24?
31°C 34%
30°C 22%
32°C 21%
29°C 8%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 24, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
3%
29°C
8%
30°C
22%
31°C
34%
32°C
21%
33°C
6%
34°C or higher
2%
31°C 34%
30°C 22%
32°C 21%
29°C 8%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 24, 2026
24°C or below
$9 Обс.
<1%
25°C
$0 Обс.
<1%
26°C
$135 Обс.
<1%
27°C
$85 Обс.
1%
28°C
$142 Обс.
3%
29°C
$75 Обс.
8%
30°C
$405 Обс.
22%
31°C
$691 Обс.
34%
32°C
$1,372 Обс.
21%
33°C
$859 Обс.
6%
34°C or higher
$302 Обс.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) conditions dominate Manila's outlook for August 24, driving the market's clustering around 30–32°C with combined implied probability near 74%. Official PAGASA guidance projects daytime highs near 30–32°C amid 40–80% rain chances, scattered thunderstorms, and extensive cloud cover that suppresses insolation and caps afternoon peaks. Trader dispersion across 29–33°C reflects uncertainty in convective timing and intensity: sustained heavy rainfall favors the lower end while brief clearing or reduced thunderstorm activity could permit brief spikes to 32–33°C. Historical August baselines near 30–31°C provide context, yet model variability in monsoon strength keeps resolution sensitive to the latest forecast updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 22, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Обсяг
$4,074Дата завершення
Aug 24, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 22, 2026, 12:58 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) conditions dominate Manila's outlook for August 24, driving the market's clustering around 30–32°C with combined implied probability near 74%. Official PAGASA guidance projects daytime highs near 30–32°C amid 40–80% rain chances, scattered thunderstorms, and extensive cloud cover that suppresses insolation and caps afternoon peaks. Trader dispersion across 29–33°C reflects uncertainty in convective timing and intensity: sustained heavy rainfall favors the lower end while brief clearing or reduced thunderstorm activity could permit brief spikes to 32–33°C. Historical August baselines near 30–31°C provide context, yet model variability in monsoon strength keeps resolution sensitive to the latest forecast updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$4,074Дата завершення
Aug 24, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 22, 2026, 12:58 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) conditions dominate Manila's outlook for August 24, driving the market's clustering around 30–32°C with combined implied probability near 74%. Official PAGASA guidance projects daytime highs near 30–32°C amid 40–80% rain chances, scattered thunderstorms, and extensive cloud cover that suppresses insolation and caps afternoon peaks. Trader dispersion across 29–33°C reflects uncertainty in convective timing and intensity: sustained heavy rainfall favors the lower end while brief clearing or reduced thunderstorm activity could permit brief spikes to 32–33°C. Historical August baselines near 30–31°C provide context, yet model variability in monsoon strength keeps resolution sensitive to the latest forecast updates.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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