Trader consensus in this Beijing temperature market clusters tightly around 31–33°C due to converging short-range forecast guidance from global ensembles and the China Meteorological Administration indicating a late-August cooling trend. Typical seasonal highs near 30°C are tempered by expected thundershowers and shifting wind patterns that enhance cloud cover and limit diurnal heating, while model spread arises primarily from uncertainties in exact precipitation timing and boundary-layer moisture. Recent runs show slight warming potential under clearer skies on the 25th versus greater suppression from organized convection, keeping the distribution narrow and preventing stronger conviction in either the 34°C or sub-30°C tails. Updated model cycles and official briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Beijing on August 25?
Highest temperature in Beijing on August 25?
32°C 30%
31°C 27%
33°C 27%
29°C 11%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 25, 2026
26°C or below
1%
27°C
1%
28°C
2%
29°C
11%
30°C
11%
31°C
27%
32°C
30%
33°C
27%
34°C
12%
35°C
7%
36°C or higher
1%
32°C 30%
31°C 27%
33°C 27%
29°C 11%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 25, 2026
26°C or below
$0 Обс.
1%
27°C
$0 Обс.
1%
28°C
$15 Обс.
2%
29°C
$20 Обс.
11%
30°C
$5 Обс.
11%
31°C
$19 Обс.
27%
32°C
$21 Обс.
30%
33°C
$5 Обс.
27%
34°C
$13 Обс.
12%
35°C
$5 Обс.
7%
36°C or higher
$0 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus in this Beijing temperature market clusters tightly around 31–33°C due to converging short-range forecast guidance from global ensembles and the China Meteorological Administration indicating a late-August cooling trend. Typical seasonal highs near 30°C are tempered by expected thundershowers and shifting wind patterns that enhance cloud cover and limit diurnal heating, while model spread arises primarily from uncertainties in exact precipitation timing and boundary-layer moisture. Recent runs show slight warming potential under clearer skies on the 25th versus greater suppression from organized convection, keeping the distribution narrow and preventing stronger conviction in either the 34°C or sub-30°C tails. Updated model cycles and official briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Обсяг
$103Дата завершення
Aug 25, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus in this Beijing temperature market clusters tightly around 31–33°C due to converging short-range forecast guidance from global ensembles and the China Meteorological Administration indicating a late-August cooling trend. Typical seasonal highs near 30°C are tempered by expected thundershowers and shifting wind patterns that enhance cloud cover and limit diurnal heating, while model spread arises primarily from uncertainties in exact precipitation timing and boundary-layer moisture. Recent runs show slight warming potential under clearer skies on the 25th versus greater suppression from organized convection, keeping the distribution narrow and preventing stronger conviction in either the 34°C or sub-30°C tails. Updated model cycles and official briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$103Дата завершення
Aug 25, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus in this Beijing temperature market clusters tightly around 31–33°C due to converging short-range forecast guidance from global ensembles and the China Meteorological Administration indicating a late-August cooling trend. Typical seasonal highs near 30°C are tempered by expected thundershowers and shifting wind patterns that enhance cloud cover and limit diurnal heating, while model spread arises primarily from uncertainties in exact precipitation timing and boundary-layer moisture. Recent runs show slight warming potential under clearer skies on the 25th versus greater suppression from organized convection, keeping the distribution narrow and preventing stronger conviction in either the 34°C or sub-30°C tails. Updated model cycles and official briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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