Forecast models from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and international services converge on a maximum of 32–33°C for Chengdu on August 24, driven by persistent high humidity, variable cloud cover, and scattered afternoon thunderstorms that limit peak solar heating in the Sichuan Basin. Traders assign the highest implied probability (29.5%) to 36°C because recent August patterns show occasional rapid afternoon clearing that can add 2–3°C, while the tight clustering around 34–37°C reflects model spread on exact timing of any rain or wind shifts. Historical baselines for late August average near 32°C, but urban heat-island effects and measurement at official stations introduce small upward biases that markets price in. Updated model runs and official bulletins over the next 24 hours remain the key variables that could narrow these close probabilities.