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2026 Midterms Election Odds & Predictions

Updated Jul 21, 2026 10:36 PM ET

2026 Midterm Election Odds & Predictions

00
DAYS
00
HOURS
00
MINUTES
00
SECONDS
Trade$100 -> $176
49 REPUBLICANS51 DEMOCRATS
Trade$100 -> $116
202 REPUBLICANS233 DEMOCRATS
Toss up
Lean D
Likely D
Safe D
No race
Lean R
Likely R
Safe R

Referendums

top issue markets
$4M Vol

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

66% chance no

+5.0%
Trade
$6.4K Vol

Will Michigan vote to rewrite the state Constitution?

81% chance no

+0.5%
Trade
NEW

Will the Missouri abortion & sex change for minors ban pass?

81% chance no

+2.0%
Trade

Biggest races

most pivotal markets
$1M Vol

AK Governor

59% Republican

-2%
Trade
$1M Vol

ME Senate

68% Democrat

+2%
Trade
$600K Vol

TX Senate

50% Democrat

+0%
Trade

All races

529 markets
Race
State
Fav
Tier
Showing 25 of 50 markets

Midterms 2026 odds

California Governor Election WinnerXavier Becerra
93%
Steve Hilton
7%
Alaska Governor Election Winner Tom Begich
33%
Bernadette Wilson
29%
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins
16%
Treg Taylor
9%
David Bronson
6%
Bill Walker
6%
Click Bishop
2%
Nancy Dahlstrom
1%
Matt Heilala
1%
Mary Peltola
1%
Matt Claman
1%
Lesil McGuire
1%
Maine Senate Election WinnerDemocrat
68%
Republican
32%
Texas Senate Election WinnerKen Paxton (R)
56%
James Talarico (D)
44%
AZ-01 Republican Primary WinnerJay Feely
92%
Joseph Chaplik
8%
FL-06 Republican Primary WinnerRandy Fine
96%
Dan Bilzerian
1%
Michigan Governor Election WinnerDemocrat
84%
Republican
16%
Independent
1%
Nebraska Senate Election Winner Republican
71%
Independent
30%
Democrat
1%
Iowa Senate Election WinnerRepublican
62%
Democrat
39%
AZ-05 Republican Primary WinnerMark Lamb
88%
Daniel Keenan
13%
South Carolina Senate Election WinnerRepublican
83%
Democrat
18%
Montana Senate Election WinnerRepublican
90%
Independent
10%
Democrat
1%
New York Governor Election WinnerDemocrat
93%
Republican
8%
North Carolina Senate Election WinnerRoy Cooper (D)
87%
Michael Whatley (R)
14%
Wisconsin Governor Election WinnerDemocrat
56%
Republican
42%
MO-01 Democratic Primary WinnerCori Bush
54%
Wesley Bell
47%
Georgia Senate Election WinnerDemocrat
87%
Republican
14%
MI-13 Democratic Primary WinnerDonavan McKinney
74%
Shri Thanedar
25%
AZ-04 Democratic Primary WinnerGreg Stanton
96%
Kai Newkirk
3%
MI-07 Democratic Primary WinnerWilliam Lawrence
54%
Matt Maasdam
26%
Bridget Brink
19%
MA-06 Democratic Primary WinnerDan Koh
71%
Tram Nguyen
28%
Beth Andres-Beck
2%
Seth Moulton
1%
John Beccia
1%
Mariah Lancaster
1%
Kevin Larivee
1%
Georgia Governor Election WinnerDemocrat
56%
Republican
45%
LA-05 Republican Primary WinnerRick Edmonds
7%
Michael Echols
5%
Blake Miguez
5%
Misti Cordell
2%
Austin Magee
2%
Michael Mebruer
2%
Samuel Wyatt
2%
Iowa Governor Election WinnerDemocrat
62%
Republican
36%
FL-23 Democratic Primary WinnerLois Frankel
93%
Victoria Doyle
3%
Oliver Adams Larkin
2%
AL-01 Republican Primary WinnerJerry Carl
98%
Rhett Marques
9%
Austin Sidwell
2%
John Mills
1%
FL-09 Republican Primary WinnerThomas Chalifoux
42%
Dan Green
26%
Marcus Carter
13%
Jorge Martinez
13%
Justin Story
5%
Ben Butler
3%
Howard Steven Rance
2%
Jorge Malavet
1%
Steve Rance
1%
MI-11 Democratic Primary WinnerJeremy Moss
84%
Aisha Farooqi
14%
MN-02 Democratic Primary WinnerMatt Little
82%
Kaela Berg
14%
Matt Klein
3%
Kansas Senate Election WinnerRepublican
83%
Democrat
18%
AZ-05 Democratic Primary WinnerElizabeth Lee
93%
Chris James
6%
Brian Hualde
1%
Vermont Governor Election WinnerRepublican
85%
Democrat
18%
AZ-01 Democratic Primary WinnerAmish Shah
76%
Marlene Galán-Woods
24%
Jonathan Treble
3%
Illinois Senate Election WinnerJuliana Stratton (D)
94%
Don Tracy (R)
6%
Maine Governor Election WinnerDemocrat
94%
Republican
6%
MN-02 Republican Primary WinnerEric Pratt
96%
Tyler Kistner
1%
New Mexico Governor Election WinnerDemocrat
89%
Republican
12%
Alaska At-Large Primary WinnersNick Begich III
99%
Bill Hill
96%
Matt Schultz
62%
John Williams
59%
Matthew "Bronco" Williams
33%
Gavin Solomon
1%
CT-01 Democratic Primary WinnerLuke Bronin
72%
John Larson
26%
New Hampshire Governor Election WinnerRepublican
79%
Democrat
22%
Alabama Senate Election WinnerRepublican
95%
Democrat
5%
MO-04 Democratic Primary WinnerHartzell Gray
56%
Jordan Herrera
10%
Wayne Russell
8%
Randy Miller
6%
Jeanette Cass
5%
G Rick
2%
Ashleigh Rogers
2%
HI-01 Democratic Primary WinnerEd Case
52%
Jarrett Keohokalole
45%
Nicholas Kiswanto
39%
Jennifer Booker
5%
Ben Fatula
2%
Arkansas Governor Election WinnerRepublican
94%
Democrat
2%
FL-07 Republican Primary WinnerRyan Elijah
79%
Cory Mills
18%
Mike Johnson
5%
Sarah Ulrich
4%
HI-02 Democratic Primary WinnerJill Tokuda
72%
Greg Guithues
37%
Steven King
37%
Kirill Basin
32%
FL-02 Republican Primary WinnerKeith Gross
52%
Evan Power
32%
Austin Rogers
17%
Jim Norton
14%
Lee Jones
11%
Luke Murphy
11%
Nick Lewis
10%
Audie Rowell
10%
WI-01 Democratic Primary WinnerMitchell Berman
77%
Lorenzo Santos
14%
Peter Burgelis
13%
Miguel Aranda
7%
FL-05 Republican Primary WinnerJohn Rutherford
87%
Mark Kaye
14%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Yes
35%

About the 2026 U.S. Midterm Elections

The 2026 United States midterm elections are scheduled for November 3, 2026, and will determine the composition of the 120th United States Congress alongside a broad range of state and local offices. All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, 35 of the 100 Senate seats, 36 gubernatorial positions across U.S. states, and numerous state legislative, executive, and local races will appear on ballots nationwide. These are the first national midterms to take place during a non-consecutive presidential second term since 1894, as President Donald Trump returns to office following the Republi...

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