The Rhode Island U.S. Senate race pits longtime Democratic incumbent Jack Reed against Republican challenger Raymond McKay in a contest rated safe Democratic by multiple forecasters. With the September 9 primaries days away and the general election two months out, trader consensus clusters around 300,000–400,000 total votes cast, reflecting Rhode Island’s typical midterm-era turnout patterns of 48–60 percent of registered voters. Limited campaign intensity, the absence of competitive down-ballot races, and modest early-voting activity keep probabilities spread across several turnout bins. Factors that could shift the distribution include primary results, late-cycle get-out-the-vote spending, or unusually high mail or early voting participation before November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated300K-350K 33%
<250K 23%
450K+ 22%
250K-300K 14%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
<250K
23%
250K-300K
14%
300K-350K
33%
350K-400K
16%
400K-450K
14%
450K+
22%
300K-350K 33%
<250K 23%
450K+ 22%
250K-300K 14%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
<250K
$40 Vol.
23%
250K-300K
$40 Vol.
14%
300K-350K
$60 Vol.
33%
350K-400K
$21 Vol.
16%
400K-450K
$20 Vol.
14%
450K+
$41 Vol.
22%
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Rhode Island.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Rhode Island, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Rhode Island U.S. Senate race pits longtime Democratic incumbent Jack Reed against Republican challenger Raymond McKay in a contest rated safe Democratic by multiple forecasters. With the September 9 primaries days away and the general election two months out, trader consensus clusters around 300,000–400,000 total votes cast, reflecting Rhode Island’s typical midterm-era turnout patterns of 48–60 percent of registered voters. Limited campaign intensity, the absence of competitive down-ballot races, and modest early-voting activity keep probabilities spread across several turnout bins. Factors that could shift the distribution include primary results, late-cycle get-out-the-vote spending, or unusually high mail or early voting participation before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Rhode Island.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Rhode Island, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Rhode Island, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 18, 2026, 10:22 AM ET
Volume
$222End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 10:22 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Rhode Island.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Rhode Island, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Rhode Island U.S. Senate race pits longtime Democratic incumbent Jack Reed against Republican challenger Raymond McKay in a contest rated safe Democratic by multiple forecasters. With the September 9 primaries days away and the general election two months out, trader consensus clusters around 300,000–400,000 total votes cast, reflecting Rhode Island’s typical midterm-era turnout patterns of 48–60 percent of registered voters. Limited campaign intensity, the absence of competitive down-ballot races, and modest early-voting activity keep probabilities spread across several turnout bins. Factors that could shift the distribution include primary results, late-cycle get-out-the-vote spending, or unusually high mail or early voting participation before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Rhode Island.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Rhode Island, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Rhode Island, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$222End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 10:22 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Rhode Island U.S. Senate race pits longtime Democratic incumbent Jack Reed against Republican challenger Raymond McKay in a contest rated safe Democratic by multiple forecasters. With the September 9 primaries days away and the general election two months out, trader consensus clusters around 300,000–400,000 total votes cast, reflecting Rhode Island’s typical midterm-era turnout patterns of 48–60 percent of registered voters. Limited campaign intensity, the absence of competitive down-ballot races, and modest early-voting activity keep probabilities spread across several turnout bins. Factors that could shift the distribution include primary results, late-cycle get-out-the-vote spending, or unusually high mail or early voting participation before November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
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