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icon for Arkansas Senate Election: Turnout
Politics·Turnout

Arkansas Senate Election: Turnout

icon for Arkansas Senate Election: Turnout
Politics·Turnout

Arkansas Senate Election: Turnout

825K-900K 21%

900K-975K 17%

750K-825K 16%

<600K 13%

Polymarket
NEW

825K-900K 21%

900K-975K 17%

750K-825K 16%

<600K 13%

Polymarket
NEW

<600K

$119 Vol.

13%

600K-675K

$49 Vol.

12%

675K-750K

$139 Vol.

12%

750K-825K

$92 Vol.

16%

825K-900K

$69 Vol.

21%

900K-975K

$70 Vol.

17%

975K-1.05M

$62 Vol.

12%

1.05M+

$138 Vol.

26%

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Arkansas. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Arkansas, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The spread in probabilities across Arkansas Senate turnout buckets reflects uncertainty in a low-salience contest where incumbent Republican Tom Cotton faces Democrat Hallie Shoffner in a solidly Republican state. Historical general election participation has ranged from roughly 900,000 votes in the 2022 Senate race to over 1.2 million in the 2020 presidential contest, with midterms typically showing more modest engagement absent high-profile national issues or competitive dynamics. Recent primaries drew limited participation, and the race has generated little late-cycle momentum or external spending to drive mobilization. Factors that could shift totals include early and absentee voting rates, weather on November 3, or any surge in Democratic turnout efforts in a presidential midterm environment.

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Arkansas.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Arkansas, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Arkansas. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Arkansas, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$736
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 10:07 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Arkansas. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Arkansas, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The spread in probabilities across Arkansas Senate turnout buckets reflects uncertainty in a low-salience contest where incumbent Republican Tom Cotton faces Democrat Hallie Shoffner in a solidly Republican state. Historical general election participation has ranged from roughly 900,000 votes in the 2022 Senate race to over 1.2 million in the 2020 presidential contest, with midterms typically showing more modest engagement absent high-profile national issues or competitive dynamics. Recent primaries drew limited participation, and the race has generated little late-cycle momentum or external spending to drive mobilization. Factors that could shift totals include early and absentee voting rates, weather on November 3, or any surge in Democratic turnout efforts in a presidential midterm environment.

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Arkansas.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Arkansas, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Arkansas. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Arkansas, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$736
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 10:07 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Arkansas Senate Election: Turnout" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "1.05M+" at 26%, followed by "825K-900K" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 26¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 26% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Arkansas Senate Election: Turnout" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 18, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Arkansas Senate Election: Turnout," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Arkansas Senate Election: Turnout" is "1.05M+" at 26%, meaning the market assigns a 26% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "825K-900K" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Arkansas Senate Election: Turnout" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.