**Persistent southwest monsoon (Habagat) flow, high humidity, and extensive cloud cover are the dominant drivers keeping overnight minimum temperatures elevated in Manila.** Forecasts from PAGASA and multiple models indicate a minimum around 26–27°C on August 24, consistent with typical August values of roughly 25–27°C, supported by dew points near 24–25°C and winds from the southwest that limit radiative cooling. Recent developments include the active monsoon enhanced by approaching systems (such as the potential influence of Saudel/Obet near the Philippine Area of Responsibility), sustaining widespread cloudiness, scattered showers, and humidity above 85–90% through the night. These conditions suppress temperature drops, making lower outcomes (24°C or below) less likely while raising the chance of a relatively warm minimum if cloud cover remains thick. Trader sentiment reflects this uncertainty in exact overnight cooling: the spread across 25–27°C outcomes captures model variations in cloud thickness and precipitation timing, while the elevated probability on 31°C or higher highlights the possibility of minimal nocturnal cooling under continued monsoon conditions. Upcoming PAGASA updates and revised model runs on August 23–24 will provide the next key data points for refining these probabilities.