Current forecast models from agencies including the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate a high likelihood of mid-30s Celsius maxima in Tokyo on August 1 amid above-normal summer temperatures driven by a strong Pacific High. This positions 35°C as the narrow market leader at 36.5% implied probability versus 34°C at 32.5%, reflecting genuine uncertainty in exact peak values. Key differentiating factors include subtle variations in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, urban heat island amplification, and steering flow that could tip the daily maximum by 1°C. Historical August climatology shows typical highs near 31–33°C with frequent excursions above 35°C, while recent seasonal outlooks reinforce elevated baseline conditions without pinpointing the precise threshold. Updated model runs and official observations tomorrow morning will likely narrow the range ahead of market resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 1?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 1?
35°C 37%
34°C 33%
36°C 18%
33°C 10%
NOWE
$28,160 Wol.
NOWE
$28,160 Wol.
Aug 1, 2026
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
1%
32°C
2%
33°C
10%
34°C
33%
35°C
37%
36°C
18%
37°C
5%
38°C
1%
39°C or higher
<1%
35°C 37%
34°C 33%
36°C 18%
33°C 10%
NOWE
$28,160 Wol.
NOWE
$28,160 Wol.
Aug 1, 2026
29°C or below
$2,224 Wol.
<1%
30°C
$4,649 Wol.
<1%
31°C
$1,548 Wol.
1%
32°C
$3,938 Wol.
2%
33°C
$1,646 Wol.
10%
34°C
$1,971 Wol.
33%
35°C
$2,438 Wol.
37%
36°C
$2,383 Wol.
18%
37°C
$3,071 Wol.
5%
38°C
$2,988 Wol.
1%
39°C or higher
$1,635 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from agencies including the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate a high likelihood of mid-30s Celsius maxima in Tokyo on August 1 amid above-normal summer temperatures driven by a strong Pacific High. This positions 35°C as the narrow market leader at 36.5% implied probability versus 34°C at 32.5%, reflecting genuine uncertainty in exact peak values. Key differentiating factors include subtle variations in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, urban heat island amplification, and steering flow that could tip the daily maximum by 1°C. Historical August climatology shows typical highs near 31–33°C with frequent excursions above 35°C, while recent seasonal outlooks reinforce elevated baseline conditions without pinpointing the precise threshold. Updated model runs and official observations tomorrow morning will likely narrow the range ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 30, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Wolumen
$28,160Data zakończenia
Aug 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 30, 2026, 12:02 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from agencies including the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate a high likelihood of mid-30s Celsius maxima in Tokyo on August 1 amid above-normal summer temperatures driven by a strong Pacific High. This positions 35°C as the narrow market leader at 36.5% implied probability versus 34°C at 32.5%, reflecting genuine uncertainty in exact peak values. Key differentiating factors include subtle variations in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, urban heat island amplification, and steering flow that could tip the daily maximum by 1°C. Historical August climatology shows typical highs near 31–33°C with frequent excursions above 35°C, while recent seasonal outlooks reinforce elevated baseline conditions without pinpointing the precise threshold. Updated model runs and official observations tomorrow morning will likely narrow the range ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$28,160Data zakończenia
Aug 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 30, 2026, 12:02 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast models from agencies including the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate a high likelihood of mid-30s Celsius maxima in Tokyo on August 1 amid above-normal summer temperatures driven by a strong Pacific High. This positions 35°C as the narrow market leader at 36.5% implied probability versus 34°C at 32.5%, reflecting genuine uncertainty in exact peak values. Key differentiating factors include subtle variations in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, urban heat island amplification, and steering flow that could tip the daily maximum by 1°C. Historical August climatology shows typical highs near 31–33°C with frequent excursions above 35°C, while recent seasonal outlooks reinforce elevated baseline conditions without pinpointing the precise threshold. Updated model runs and official observations tomorrow morning will likely narrow the range ahead of market resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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