Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate Tokyo's overnight minimum will reach 26°C under stable subtropical high-pressure conditions typical of early August, with model consensus from JMA and global ensembles showing little deviation. Historical climatology for the period supports this baseline, as urban heat island effects and southerly flow suppress cooler air intrusions. The 97.5% market-implied probability reflects traders' assessment of these stable atmospheric patterns and limited forecast uncertainty. A realistic challenge could arise from an unpredicted frontal passage or rapid radiative cooling under clearer skies, potentially dropping readings below the threshold before official daily minimum verification.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 1?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 1?
26°C 98%
24°C <1%
23°C <1%
25°C <1%
$16,195 Wol.
$16,195 Wol.
Aug 1, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
98%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
26°C 98%
24°C <1%
23°C <1%
25°C <1%
$16,195 Wol.
$16,195 Wol.
Aug 1, 2026
22°C or below
$348 Wol.
<1%
23°C
$457 Wol.
<1%
24°C
$506 Wol.
1%
25°C
$745 Wol.
<1%
26°C
$1,373 Wol.
98%
27°C
$10,057 Wol.
<1%
28°C
$1,181 Wol.
<1%
29°C
$659 Wol.
<1%
30°C
$372 Wol.
<1%
31°C
$305 Wol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$193 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate Tokyo's overnight minimum will reach 26°C under stable subtropical high-pressure conditions typical of early August, with model consensus from JMA and global ensembles showing little deviation. Historical climatology for the period supports this baseline, as urban heat island effects and southerly flow suppress cooler air intrusions. The 97.5% market-implied probability reflects traders' assessment of these stable atmospheric patterns and limited forecast uncertainty. A realistic challenge could arise from an unpredicted frontal passage or rapid radiative cooling under clearer skies, potentially dropping readings below the threshold before official daily minimum verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Wolumen
$16,195Data zakończenia
Aug 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate Tokyo's overnight minimum will reach 26°C under stable subtropical high-pressure conditions typical of early August, with model consensus from JMA and global ensembles showing little deviation. Historical climatology for the period supports this baseline, as urban heat island effects and southerly flow suppress cooler air intrusions. The 97.5% market-implied probability reflects traders' assessment of these stable atmospheric patterns and limited forecast uncertainty. A realistic challenge could arise from an unpredicted frontal passage or rapid radiative cooling under clearer skies, potentially dropping readings below the threshold before official daily minimum verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$16,195Data zakończenia
Aug 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate Tokyo's overnight minimum will reach 26°C under stable subtropical high-pressure conditions typical of early August, with model consensus from JMA and global ensembles showing little deviation. Historical climatology for the period supports this baseline, as urban heat island effects and southerly flow suppress cooler air intrusions. The 97.5% market-implied probability reflects traders' assessment of these stable atmospheric patterns and limited forecast uncertainty. A realistic challenge could arise from an unpredicted frontal passage or rapid radiative cooling under clearer skies, potentially dropping readings below the threshold before official daily minimum verification.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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