Meteorological model consensus from AEMET and European ensembles positions 33–34°C as the most probable Madrid maximum on August 23, 2026, under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light southwesterly flow that favors typical late-summer radiative heating without significant advection or cloud cover. Official forecasts project a 32–33°C peak consistent with climatological averages near 32°C, creating tight uncertainty around the 34°C outcome that currently holds 57.5% implied probability. Minimal recent model shifts or synoptic changes have kept probabilities stable, with only modest upside risk to 35°C if boundary-layer mixing exceeds expectations.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Madrid on August 23?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 23?
34°C 57%
33°C 36%
35°C 4%
32°C 4%
$22,052 Wol.
$22,052 Wol.
Aug 23, 2026
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
1%
32°C
4%
33°C
36%
34°C
57%
35°C
4%
36°C
1%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C or higher
<1%
34°C 57%
33°C 36%
35°C 4%
32°C 4%
$22,052 Wol.
$22,052 Wol.
Aug 23, 2026
29°C or below
$1,774 Wol.
<1%
30°C
$349 Wol.
<1%
31°C
$1,175 Wol.
1%
32°C
$3,471 Wol.
4%
33°C
$3,615 Wol.
36%
34°C
$6,441 Wol.
57%
35°C
$3,312 Wol.
4%
36°C
$943 Wol.
1%
37°C
$381 Wol.
<1%
38°C
$327 Wol.
<1%
39°C or higher
$263 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Meteorological model consensus from AEMET and European ensembles positions 33–34°C as the most probable Madrid maximum on August 23, 2026, under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light southwesterly flow that favors typical late-summer radiative heating without significant advection or cloud cover. Official forecasts project a 32–33°C peak consistent with climatological averages near 32°C, creating tight uncertainty around the 34°C outcome that currently holds 57.5% implied probability. Minimal recent model shifts or synoptic changes have kept probabilities stable, with only modest upside risk to 35°C if boundary-layer mixing exceeds expectations.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 21, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Wolumen
$22,052Data zakończenia
Aug 23, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 21, 2026, 12:57 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Meteorological model consensus from AEMET and European ensembles positions 33–34°C as the most probable Madrid maximum on August 23, 2026, under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light southwesterly flow that favors typical late-summer radiative heating without significant advection or cloud cover. Official forecasts project a 32–33°C peak consistent with climatological averages near 32°C, creating tight uncertainty around the 34°C outcome that currently holds 57.5% implied probability. Minimal recent model shifts or synoptic changes have kept probabilities stable, with only modest upside risk to 35°C if boundary-layer mixing exceeds expectations.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$22,052Data zakończenia
Aug 23, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 21, 2026, 12:57 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Meteorological model consensus from AEMET and European ensembles positions 33–34°C as the most probable Madrid maximum on August 23, 2026, under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light southwesterly flow that favors typical late-summer radiative heating without significant advection or cloud cover. Official forecasts project a 32–33°C peak consistent with climatological averages near 32°C, creating tight uncertainty around the 34°C outcome that currently holds 57.5% implied probability. Minimal recent model shifts or synoptic changes have kept probabilities stable, with only modest upside risk to 35°C if boundary-layer mixing exceeds expectations.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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