Forecast models from the Met Office, BBC, and AEMET consensus point to an 18–19°C minimum in Madrid on August 23, 2026, as the primary driver behind the 40% market-implied probability for 19°C and 20% for 18°C. Madrid’s high-elevation continental climate, combined with clear skies and light winds, promotes efficient nocturnal radiative cooling after daytime highs near 32°C, while limited cloud cover and stable high-pressure patterns limit overnight warming. Recent model runs show minimal revisions, reflecting consistent boundary-layer conditions and reinforcing trader positioning around these narrow outcomes. Historical late-August averages near 17–19°C provide additional context, though final resolution depends on official station observations amid typical diurnal ranges of 12–15°C.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月23日のマドリードの最低気温は?
21°C 85%
20°C 13%
17°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
17°C or below
1%
18°C
30%
19°C
31%
20°C
13%
21°C
85%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C or higher
<1%
21°C 85%
20°C 13%
17°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
17°C or below
1%
18°C
30%
19°C
31%
20°C
13%
21°C
85%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C or higher
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日: Aug 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Forecast models from the Met Office, BBC, and AEMET consensus point to an 18–19°C minimum in Madrid on August 23, 2026, as the primary driver behind the 40% market-implied probability for 19°C and 20% for 18°C. Madrid’s high-elevation continental climate, combined with clear skies and light winds, promotes efficient nocturnal radiative cooling after daytime highs near 32°C, while limited cloud cover and stable high-pressure patterns limit overnight warming. Recent model runs show minimal revisions, reflecting consistent boundary-layer conditions and reinforcing trader positioning around these narrow outcomes. Historical late-August averages near 17–19°C provide additional context, though final resolution depends on official station observations amid typical diurnal ranges of 12–15°C.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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