Recent National Weather Service and model guidance indicate a cooler-than-average air mass over the Northeast, with surface highs likely in the mid- to upper-70s Fahrenheit for New York City on August 25. This stems from northwesterly flow behind a departing frontal system, reduced southerly moisture transport, and limited diurnal heating under variable cloud cover. Ensemble spread in the GFS and ECMWF keeps the precise maximum uncertain within a several-degree window, explaining the market’s nearly uniform probabilities across bins from the low-70s through the low-80s. Historical August maxima average 83 °F at Central Park, so current conditions tilt probabilities toward the lower half of the distribution while still allowing modest warming if skies clear earlier than expected.