Recent official forecasts from agencies and models place the August 31 high in Buenos Aires near 16–18°C under partly cloudy skies with light easterly flow, consistent with late-winter climatology where daytime maxima typically range 15–18°C. This consensus, coupled with stable high pressure and no significant warm advection, underpins the market’s heavy weighting toward 19–20°C outcomes while leaving modest room for 21°C if afternoon insolation exceeds expectations or model runs trend warmer. Minor disagreements among guidance and the possibility of updated afternoon observations keep lower probabilities on 18°C and below, with traders closely monitoring the next model cycles and official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional briefings before resolution.