Minnesota's 4th Congressional District remains a solidly Democratic seat anchored in the St. Paul metro area and Ramsey County. Incumbent Representative Betty McCollum secured the Democratic nomination in the August 11, 2026 primary with a wide margin over challenger Aswar Rahman, continuing a pattern of strong primary performance and general election results that included 67.6 percent of the vote in 2024. Republican nominee Paul Wikstrom faces structural headwinds in a district with consistent Democratic voter registration advantages and turnout patterns. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with historical base rates for safe incumbent-held seats and the absence of recent polling shifts, scandals, or redistricting developments that would alter the competitive landscape ahead of the November 3 general election. Late-cycle national swings or unexpected candidate withdrawals represent the primary variables that could still influence outcomes.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoMN-04 House Election Winner
MN-04 House Election Winner
$21,271 Vol.
$21,271 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
6%
$21,271 Vol.
$21,271 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democratic Party
$3,902 Vol.
94%
Republican Party
$17,370 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Minnesota's 4th Congressional District remains a solidly Democratic seat anchored in the St. Paul metro area and Ramsey County. Incumbent Representative Betty McCollum secured the Democratic nomination in the August 11, 2026 primary with a wide margin over challenger Aswar Rahman, continuing a pattern of strong primary performance and general election results that included 67.6 percent of the vote in 2024. Republican nominee Paul Wikstrom faces structural headwinds in a district with consistent Democratic voter registration advantages and turnout patterns. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with historical base rates for safe incumbent-held seats and the absence of recent polling shifts, scandals, or redistricting developments that would alter the competitive landscape ahead of the November 3 general election. Late-cycle national swings or unexpected candidate withdrawals represent the primary variables that could still influence outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$21,271Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Minnesota's 4th Congressional District remains a solidly Democratic seat anchored in the St. Paul metro area and Ramsey County. Incumbent Representative Betty McCollum secured the Democratic nomination in the August 11, 2026 primary with a wide margin over challenger Aswar Rahman, continuing a pattern of strong primary performance and general election results that included 67.6 percent of the vote in 2024. Republican nominee Paul Wikstrom faces structural headwinds in a district with consistent Democratic voter registration advantages and turnout patterns. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with historical base rates for safe incumbent-held seats and the absence of recent polling shifts, scandals, or redistricting developments that would alter the competitive landscape ahead of the November 3 general election. Late-cycle national swings or unexpected candidate withdrawals represent the primary variables that could still influence outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$21,271Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Minnesota's 4th Congressional District remains a solidly Democratic seat anchored in the St. Paul metro area and Ramsey County. Incumbent Representative Betty McCollum secured the Democratic nomination in the August 11, 2026 primary with a wide margin over challenger Aswar Rahman, continuing a pattern of strong primary performance and general election results that included 67.6 percent of the vote in 2024. Republican nominee Paul Wikstrom faces structural headwinds in a district with consistent Democratic voter registration advantages and turnout patterns. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with historical base rates for safe incumbent-held seats and the absence of recent polling shifts, scandals, or redistricting developments that would alter the competitive landscape ahead of the November 3 general election. Late-cycle national swings or unexpected candidate withdrawals represent the primary variables that could still influence outcomes.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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