Recent forecast consensus from models including GFS points to a cooler air mass and increased cloud cover over Madrid on August 24, shifting southwest winds and moderating highs after the 32–33°C peak on August 23. This pattern supports afternoon maxima near 26–27°C, with light precipitation chances keeping temperatures from rebounding. The market-implied odds, with 27°C at 46% and 28°C at 29.5%, reflect trader assessment of these stable model runs and limited variability in steering patterns or insolation, while lower probabilities for 29°C or above align with the expected suppression from cloudiness and wind. Updated model guidance ahead of resolution will be the key near-term driver.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Madrid on August 24?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 24?
27°C 45%
28°C 30%
26°C 14%
29°C 9%
BARU
$17,092 Vol.
BARU
$17,092 Vol.
Aug 24, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
2%
26°C
14%
27°C
45%
28°C
30%
29°C
9%
30°C
4%
31°C
1%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
27°C 45%
28°C 30%
26°C 14%
29°C 9%
BARU
$17,092 Vol.
BARU
$17,092 Vol.
Aug 24, 2026
23°C or below
$376 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$444 Vol.
1%
25°C
$626 Vol.
2%
26°C
$2,109 Vol.
14%
27°C
$2,225 Vol.
45%
28°C
$5,326 Vol.
30%
29°C
$3,574 Vol.
9%
30°C
$1,400 Vol.
4%
31°C
$170 Vol.
1%
32°C
$348 Vol.
<1%
33°C or higher
$495 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from models including GFS points to a cooler air mass and increased cloud cover over Madrid on August 24, shifting southwest winds and moderating highs after the 32–33°C peak on August 23. This pattern supports afternoon maxima near 26–27°C, with light precipitation chances keeping temperatures from rebounding. The market-implied odds, with 27°C at 46% and 28°C at 29.5%, reflect trader assessment of these stable model runs and limited variability in steering patterns or insolation, while lower probabilities for 29°C or above align with the expected suppression from cloudiness and wind. Updated model guidance ahead of resolution will be the key near-term driver.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 22, 2026, 1:56 AM ET
Volume
$17,092Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 24, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 22, 2026, 1:56 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from models including GFS points to a cooler air mass and increased cloud cover over Madrid on August 24, shifting southwest winds and moderating highs after the 32–33°C peak on August 23. This pattern supports afternoon maxima near 26–27°C, with light precipitation chances keeping temperatures from rebounding. The market-implied odds, with 27°C at 46% and 28°C at 29.5%, reflect trader assessment of these stable model runs and limited variability in steering patterns or insolation, while lower probabilities for 29°C or above align with the expected suppression from cloudiness and wind. Updated model guidance ahead of resolution will be the key near-term driver.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$17,092Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 24, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 22, 2026, 1:56 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast consensus from models including GFS points to a cooler air mass and increased cloud cover over Madrid on August 24, shifting southwest winds and moderating highs after the 32–33°C peak on August 23. This pattern supports afternoon maxima near 26–27°C, with light precipitation chances keeping temperatures from rebounding. The market-implied odds, with 27°C at 46% and 28°C at 29.5%, reflect trader assessment of these stable model runs and limited variability in steering patterns or insolation, while lower probabilities for 29°C or above align with the expected suppression from cloudiness and wind. Updated model guidance ahead of resolution will be the key near-term driver.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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