**Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and private models indicate a high near 104–106°F for Austin on August 24, 2026, under continued strong high pressure, clear skies, and light southerly flow typical of a late-summer heat dome.** This consensus, with minimal model spread and no significant moisture or frontal passage expected, underpins the market’s heavy weighting toward 104–105°F (54.5%) and 102–103°F (29.5%). Recent NWS products highlight dangerous heat continuing through the period, with daily maxima in the 103–107°F range and heat-index values exceeding 110°F, consistent with climatological peaks for the final week of August. Traders appear to be pricing the narrow window around the most probable verified airport or official station reading, while assigning low probability to outliers above 107°F or below 102°F given the stable synoptic pattern and lack of new model runs suggesting cooler or hotter solutions. Updated forecast discussions and any last-minute observational adjustments from Austin-Bergstrom will be the primary near-term catalysts.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Austin on August 24?
Highest temperature in Austin on August 24?
104-105°F 55%
102-103°F 30%
106-107°F 11%
100-101°F 4%
BARU
BARU
Aug 24, 2026
95°F or below
<1%
96-97°F
1%
98-99°F
2%
100-101°F
4%
102-103°F
30%
104-105°F
55%
106-107°F
11%
108-109°F
3%
110-111°F
1%
112-113°F
1%
114°F or higher
<1%
104-105°F 55%
102-103°F 30%
106-107°F 11%
100-101°F 4%
BARU
BARU
Aug 24, 2026
95°F or below
$65 Vol.
<1%
96-97°F
$153 Vol.
1%
98-99°F
$117 Vol.
2%
100-101°F
$282 Vol.
4%
102-103°F
$592 Vol.
30%
104-105°F
$1,336 Vol.
55%
106-107°F
$179 Vol.
11%
108-109°F
$124 Vol.
3%
110-111°F
$134 Vol.
1%
112-113°F
$104 Vol.
1%
114°F or higher
$87 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and private models indicate a high near 104–106°F for Austin on August 24, 2026, under continued strong high pressure, clear skies, and light southerly flow typical of a late-summer heat dome.**
This consensus, with minimal model spread and no significant moisture or frontal passage expected, underpins the market’s heavy weighting toward 104–105°F (54.5%) and 102–103°F (29.5%). Recent NWS products highlight dangerous heat continuing through the period, with daily maxima in the 103–107°F range and heat-index values exceeding 110°F, consistent with climatological peaks for the final week of August.
Traders appear to be pricing the narrow window around the most probable verified airport or official station reading, while assigning low probability to outliers above 107°F or below 102°F given the stable synoptic pattern and lack of new model runs suggesting cooler or hotter solutions. Updated forecast discussions and any last-minute observational adjustments from Austin-Bergstrom will be the primary near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 22, 2026, 8:56 PM ET
Volume
$3,174Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 24, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 22, 2026, 8:56 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and private models indicate a high near 104–106°F for Austin on August 24, 2026, under continued strong high pressure, clear skies, and light southerly flow typical of a late-summer heat dome.**
This consensus, with minimal model spread and no significant moisture or frontal passage expected, underpins the market’s heavy weighting toward 104–105°F (54.5%) and 102–103°F (29.5%). Recent NWS products highlight dangerous heat continuing through the period, with daily maxima in the 103–107°F range and heat-index values exceeding 110°F, consistent with climatological peaks for the final week of August.
Traders appear to be pricing the narrow window around the most probable verified airport or official station reading, while assigning low probability to outliers above 107°F or below 102°F given the stable synoptic pattern and lack of new model runs suggesting cooler or hotter solutions. Updated forecast discussions and any last-minute observational adjustments from Austin-Bergstrom will be the primary near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,174Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 24, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 22, 2026, 8:56 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and private models indicate a high near 104–106°F for Austin on August 24, 2026, under continued strong high pressure, clear skies, and light southerly flow typical of a late-summer heat dome.** This consensus, with minimal model spread and no significant moisture or frontal passage expected, underpins the market’s heavy weighting toward 104–105°F (54.5%) and 102–103°F (29.5%). Recent NWS products highlight dangerous heat continuing through the period, with daily maxima in the 103–107°F range and heat-index values exceeding 110°F, consistent with climatological peaks for the final week of August. Traders appear to be pricing the narrow window around the most probable verified airport or official station reading, while assigning low probability to outliers above 107°F or below 102°F given the stable synoptic pattern and lack of new model runs suggesting cooler or hotter solutions. Updated forecast discussions and any last-minute observational adjustments from Austin-Bergstrom will be the primary near-term catalysts.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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