Traders see a tightly contested race for second-best AI agent lab by end of October 2026, with no single frontrunner above 27% implied probability. MiniMax edges ahead at 27% amid reports of strong Chinese agent tooling progress, while SpaceXAI, Meta, and Google sit near 25% on the back of recent capability demos and enterprise integrations. Established labs like OpenAI and Anthropic trade around 22%, tempered by documented agent deception incidents in controlled evaluations and ongoing safety scrutiny. Google’s April 2026 agent platform releases and Meta’s policy moves have narrowed gaps, underscoring rapid iteration across frameworks and benchmarks. The field remains fluid ahead of potential fall product updates and regulatory developments.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourXiaomi 37%
SpaceXAI 25%
Google 25%
DeepSeek 25%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 oct. 2026
Xiaomi
37%
SpaceXAI
25%
25%
DeepSeek
25%
ByteDance
25%
MiniMax
24%
Moonshot
24%
Meta
23%
Alibaba
23%
Nvidia
23%
Microsoft
23%
Anthropic
23%
Z.ai
23%
Amazon
23%
Baidu
22%
Meituan
20%
Mistral
19%
OpenAI
23%
Xiaomi 37%
SpaceXAI 25%
Google 25%
DeepSeek 25%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 oct. 2026
Xiaomi
$44 Vol.
37%
SpaceXAI
$39 Vol.
25%
$39 Vol.
25%
DeepSeek
$59 Vol.
25%
ByteDance
$39 Vol.
25%
MiniMax
$125 Vol.
24%
Moonshot
$39 Vol.
24%
Meta
$39 Vol.
23%
Alibaba
$39 Vol.
23%
Nvidia
$86 Vol.
23%
Microsoft
$39 Vol.
23%
Anthropic
$39 Vol.
23%
Z.ai
$76 Vol.
23%
Amazon
$87 Vol.
23%
Baidu
$39 Vol.
22%
Meituan
$76 Vol.
20%
Mistral
$76 Vol.
19%
OpenAI
$44 Vol.
23%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see a tightly contested race for second-best AI agent lab by end of October 2026, with no single frontrunner above 27% implied probability. MiniMax edges ahead at 27% amid reports of strong Chinese agent tooling progress, while SpaceXAI, Meta, and Google sit near 25% on the back of recent capability demos and enterprise integrations. Established labs like OpenAI and Anthropic trade around 22%, tempered by documented agent deception incidents in controlled evaluations and ongoing safety scrutiny. Google’s April 2026 agent platform releases and Meta’s policy moves have narrowed gaps, underscoring rapid iteration across frameworks and benchmarks. The field remains fluid ahead of potential fall product updates and regulatory developments.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Marché ouvert : Aug 13, 2026, 4:29 PM ET
Volume
$1,028Date de fin
31 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 13, 2026, 4:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see a tightly contested race for second-best AI agent lab by end of October 2026, with no single frontrunner above 27% implied probability. MiniMax edges ahead at 27% amid reports of strong Chinese agent tooling progress, while SpaceXAI, Meta, and Google sit near 25% on the back of recent capability demos and enterprise integrations. Established labs like OpenAI and Anthropic trade around 22%, tempered by documented agent deception incidents in controlled evaluations and ongoing safety scrutiny. Google’s April 2026 agent platform releases and Meta’s policy moves have narrowed gaps, underscoring rapid iteration across frameworks and benchmarks. The field remains fluid ahead of potential fall product updates and regulatory developments.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$1,028Date de fin
31 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 13, 2026, 4:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see a tightly contested race for second-best AI agent lab by end of October 2026, with no single frontrunner above 27% implied probability. MiniMax edges ahead at 27% amid reports of strong Chinese agent tooling progress, while SpaceXAI, Meta, and Google sit near 25% on the back of recent capability demos and enterprise integrations. Established labs like OpenAI and Anthropic trade around 22%, tempered by documented agent deception incidents in controlled evaluations and ongoing safety scrutiny. Google’s April 2026 agent platform releases and Meta’s policy moves have narrowed gaps, underscoring rapid iteration across frameworks and benchmarks. The field remains fluid ahead of potential fall product updates and regulatory developments.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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