Google's Veo 3.1 leads trader sentiment at 55% implied probability thanks to its October 2025 release and subsequent 2026 updates delivering synchronized native audio, stronger prompt adherence, photorealistic textures, and seamless integration with Gemini and YouTube tools. Close competition from Kling 3.0, Runway Gen-4.5, ByteDance Seedance 2.5, and Luma Ray3 creates the crowded field around 50% or lower, with each excelling in motion control, character consistency, or creative editing but lacking Google's broad ecosystem reach and benchmarked realism. Sora 2's API sunset and limited availability further weaken OpenAI's position. With resolution set for end of October, any new model drops or capability demos in the next weeks could shift the tightly matched lower-tier outcomes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourGoogle 55%
Meta 28%
ByteDance 27%
Pika 25%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 oct. 2026
55%
Meta
28%
ByteDance
27%
Pika
25%
Tencent
25%
SpaceXAI
25%
Pruna
23%
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH
23%
Pixverse
23%
KlingAI
23%
Lightricks
25%
Luma AI
5%
Runway
5%
Kandinsky
5%
MiniMax
21%
Genmo AI
26%
OpenAI
20%
Google 55%
Meta 28%
ByteDance 27%
Pika 25%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 oct. 2026
$37 Vol.
55%
Meta
$37 Vol.
28%
ByteDance
$37 Vol.
27%
Pika
$37 Vol.
25%
Tencent
$37 Vol.
25%
SpaceXAI
$37 Vol.
25%
Pruna
$37 Vol.
23%
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH
$37 Vol.
23%
Pixverse
$37 Vol.
23%
KlingAI
$37 Vol.
23%
Lightricks
$53 Vol.
25%
Luma AI
$74 Vol.
5%
Runway
$37 Vol.
5%
Kandinsky
$51 Vol.
5%
MiniMax
$57 Vol.
21%
Genmo AI
$57 Vol.
26%
OpenAI
$57 Vol.
20%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google's Veo 3.1 leads trader sentiment at 55% implied probability thanks to its October 2025 release and subsequent 2026 updates delivering synchronized native audio, stronger prompt adherence, photorealistic textures, and seamless integration with Gemini and YouTube tools. Close competition from Kling 3.0, Runway Gen-4.5, ByteDance Seedance 2.5, and Luma Ray3 creates the crowded field around 50% or lower, with each excelling in motion control, character consistency, or creative editing but lacking Google's broad ecosystem reach and benchmarked realism. Sora 2's API sunset and limited availability further weaken OpenAI's position. With resolution set for end of October, any new model drops or capability demos in the next weeks could shift the tightly matched lower-tier outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Marché ouvert : Aug 13, 2026, 5:14 PM ET
Volume
$756Date de fin
31 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 13, 2026, 5:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google's Veo 3.1 leads trader sentiment at 55% implied probability thanks to its October 2025 release and subsequent 2026 updates delivering synchronized native audio, stronger prompt adherence, photorealistic textures, and seamless integration with Gemini and YouTube tools. Close competition from Kling 3.0, Runway Gen-4.5, ByteDance Seedance 2.5, and Luma Ray3 creates the crowded field around 50% or lower, with each excelling in motion control, character consistency, or creative editing but lacking Google's broad ecosystem reach and benchmarked realism. Sora 2's API sunset and limited availability further weaken OpenAI's position. With resolution set for end of October, any new model drops or capability demos in the next weeks could shift the tightly matched lower-tier outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$756Date de fin
31 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 13, 2026, 5:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Google's Veo 3.1 leads trader sentiment at 55% implied probability thanks to its October 2025 release and subsequent 2026 updates delivering synchronized native audio, stronger prompt adherence, photorealistic textures, and seamless integration with Gemini and YouTube tools. Close competition from Kling 3.0, Runway Gen-4.5, ByteDance Seedance 2.5, and Luma Ray3 creates the crowded field around 50% or lower, with each excelling in motion control, character consistency, or creative editing but lacking Google's broad ecosystem reach and benchmarked realism. Sora 2's API sunset and limited availability further weaken OpenAI's position. With resolution set for end of October, any new model drops or capability demos in the next weeks could shift the tightly matched lower-tier outcomes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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