Recent releases from Anthropic (Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 variants in July 2026) and DeepSeek (V4-Pro and Flash updates in late July and August) have kept multiple frontier labs within striking distance on composite leaderboards measuring reasoning, coding, and multimodal performance. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 series, Google’s Gemini 3.x Flash models, and strong showings from labs such as Moonshot and StepFun create a crowded middle tier, producing the market’s near-even odds around 50 percent for many candidates. Traders appear to weigh rapid iteration cycles, benchmark volatility, and the narrow window through October, where any single high-impact model drop or evaluation shift could reorder positions without a dominant #3 yet emerging.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourBaidu 26%
Xiaomi 26%
StepFun 26%
Microsoft 26%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 oct. 2026
Baidu
26%
Xiaomi
26%
StepFun
26%
Microsoft
26%
26%
Moonshot
26%
SpaceXAI
26%
DeepSeek
26%
ByteDance
26%
MiniMax
26%
Thinky
26%
Nvidia
26%
Tencent
26%
OpenAI
25%
Anthropic
23%
Meta
23%
Alibaba
23%
Z.ai
23%
Meituan
23%
Mistral
23%
Amazon
23%
Baidu 26%
Xiaomi 26%
StepFun 26%
Microsoft 26%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 oct. 2026
Baidu
$0 Vol.
26%
Xiaomi
$0 Vol.
26%
StepFun
$0 Vol.
26%
Microsoft
$0 Vol.
26%
$0 Vol.
26%
Moonshot
$0 Vol.
26%
SpaceXAI
$0 Vol.
26%
DeepSeek
$0 Vol.
26%
ByteDance
$0 Vol.
26%
MiniMax
$0 Vol.
26%
Thinky
$0 Vol.
26%
Nvidia
$0 Vol.
26%
Tencent
$0 Vol.
26%
OpenAI
$0 Vol.
25%
Anthropic
$0 Vol.
23%
Meta
$0 Vol.
23%
Alibaba
$0 Vol.
23%
Z.ai
$0 Vol.
23%
Meituan
$0 Vol.
23%
Mistral
$0 Vol.
23%
Amazon
$0 Vol.
23%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent releases from Anthropic (Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 variants in July 2026) and DeepSeek (V4-Pro and Flash updates in late July and August) have kept multiple frontier labs within striking distance on composite leaderboards measuring reasoning, coding, and multimodal performance. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 series, Google’s Gemini 3.x Flash models, and strong showings from labs such as Moonshot and StepFun create a crowded middle tier, producing the market’s near-even odds around 50 percent for many candidates. Traders appear to weigh rapid iteration cycles, benchmark volatility, and the narrow window through October, where any single high-impact model drop or evaluation shift could reorder positions without a dominant #3 yet emerging.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Marché ouvert : Aug 13, 2026, 5:14 PM ET
Volume
$0Date de fin
31 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 13, 2026, 5:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent releases from Anthropic (Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 variants in July 2026) and DeepSeek (V4-Pro and Flash updates in late July and August) have kept multiple frontier labs within striking distance on composite leaderboards measuring reasoning, coding, and multimodal performance. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 series, Google’s Gemini 3.x Flash models, and strong showings from labs such as Moonshot and StepFun create a crowded middle tier, producing the market’s near-even odds around 50 percent for many candidates. Traders appear to weigh rapid iteration cycles, benchmark volatility, and the narrow window through October, where any single high-impact model drop or evaluation shift could reorder positions without a dominant #3 yet emerging.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$0Date de fin
31 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 13, 2026, 5:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent releases from Anthropic (Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 variants in July 2026) and DeepSeek (V4-Pro and Flash updates in late July and August) have kept multiple frontier labs within striking distance on composite leaderboards measuring reasoning, coding, and multimodal performance. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 series, Google’s Gemini 3.x Flash models, and strong showings from labs such as Moonshot and StepFun create a crowded middle tier, producing the market’s near-even odds around 50 percent for many candidates. Traders appear to weigh rapid iteration cycles, benchmark volatility, and the narrow window through October, where any single high-impact model drop or evaluation shift could reorder positions without a dominant #3 yet emerging.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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