Unfavorable environmental conditions have driven the near-certain market consensus against Tropical Storm Dolly reaching hurricane strength. The system, which briefly attained tropical storm force with 35-40 knot winds in late August, encountered increasing southwesterly wind shear from an upper-level trough, rapid westward motion, and dry air aloft, causing it to degenerate into an open tropical wave and post-tropical remnants by August 28. National Hurricane Center forecasts confirm no closed circulation or intensification potential before the system reaches the Caribbean, with redevelopment odds now at just 10-20% over the next week. While some models hint at possible reorganization near Florida or the Gulf later, current shear and steering patterns make any return to organized tropical cyclone status highly improbable under official guidance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill Tropical Storm Dolly strengthen to a hurricane?
Will Tropical Storm Dolly strengthen to a hurricane?
<1% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
<1% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Dolly reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".Unfavorable environmental conditions have driven the near-certain market consensus against Tropical Storm Dolly reaching hurricane strength. The system, which briefly attained tropical storm force with 35-40 knot winds in late August, encountered increasing southwesterly wind shear from an upper-level trough, rapid westward motion, and dry air aloft, causing it to degenerate into an open tropical wave and post-tropical remnants by August 28. National Hurricane Center forecasts confirm no closed circulation or intensification potential before the system reaches the Caribbean, with redevelopment odds now at just 10-20% over the next week. While some models hint at possible reorganization near Florida or the Gulf later, current shear and steering patterns make any return to organized tropical cyclone status highly improbable under official guidance.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Dolly reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 2:37 PM ET
Volume
$2,375End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 2:37 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Dolly reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".Unfavorable environmental conditions have driven the near-certain market consensus against Tropical Storm Dolly reaching hurricane strength. The system, which briefly attained tropical storm force with 35-40 knot winds in late August, encountered increasing southwesterly wind shear from an upper-level trough, rapid westward motion, and dry air aloft, causing it to degenerate into an open tropical wave and post-tropical remnants by August 28. National Hurricane Center forecasts confirm no closed circulation or intensification potential before the system reaches the Caribbean, with redevelopment odds now at just 10-20% over the next week. While some models hint at possible reorganization near Florida or the Gulf later, current shear and steering patterns make any return to organized tropical cyclone status highly improbable under official guidance.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Dolly reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$2,375End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 2:37 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Unfavorable environmental conditions have driven the near-certain market consensus against Tropical Storm Dolly reaching hurricane strength. The system, which briefly attained tropical storm force with 35-40 knot winds in late August, encountered increasing southwesterly wind shear from an upper-level trough, rapid westward motion, and dry air aloft, causing it to degenerate into an open tropical wave and post-tropical remnants by August 28. National Hurricane Center forecasts confirm no closed circulation or intensification potential before the system reaches the Caribbean, with redevelopment odds now at just 10-20% over the next week. While some models hint at possible reorganization near Florida or the Gulf later, current shear and steering patterns make any return to organized tropical cyclone status highly improbable under official guidance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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