Meteorologists assess rainfall probabilities for August 10 using ensemble runs from NOAA’s Global Forecast System and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, which integrate current observations of moisture, instability, and steering patterns. On August 9, model consensus points to the position of any frontal boundaries or troughs that could trigger showers or thunderstorms, with precipitation thresholds tied to measurable amounts at specific stations. Traders watch for afternoon model updates and National Weather Service briefings that refine track and intensity details, as even modest shifts in low-level flow alter implied probabilities. Climatological baselines for mid-August rainfall help contextualize anomalies, while upcoming 00Z and 12Z cycles will provide the next key data releases.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhere will it rain on August 10?
Where will it rain on August 10?
Singapore
50%
Jakarta
50%
Mumbai
50%
Manila
50%
Tokyo
50%
Lagos
50%
Bangkok
50%
Hong Kong
50%
Seoul (Incheon)
50%
Taipei
50%
Colombo
50%
Dhaka
50%
Kuala Lumpur
50%
London
50%
Dubai
50%
São Paulo
50%
Sydney
50%
$35 Vol.
Singapore
50%
Jakarta
50%
Mumbai
50%
Manila
50%
Tokyo
50%
Lagos
50%
Bangkok
50%
Hong Kong
50%
Seoul (Incheon)
50%
Taipei
50%
Colombo
50%
Dhaka
50%
Kuala Lumpur
50%
London
50%
Dubai
50%
São Paulo
50%
Sydney
50%
Measurable precipitation means 0.01 inches or more as reported by the Weather Underground station page for the city.
A report of trace ("T") does not qualify.
Resolution is based on the station's first published precipitation figure for the day. Subsequent revisions or corrections to the published data will not be considered; the first published value is final. If no figure has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to "No".
Market Opened: Aug 7, 2026, 10:57 AM ET
Resolution Source
www.wunderground.com/history/daily/hk/hong-kong/VHHHResolver
0x65070BE91...Measurable precipitation means 0.01 inches or more as reported by the Weather Underground station page for the city.
A report of trace ("T") does not qualify.
Resolution is based on the station's first published precipitation figure for the day. Subsequent revisions or corrections to the published data will not be considered; the first published value is final. If no figure has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution Source
www.wunderground.com/history/daily/hk/hong-kong/VHHHResolver
0x65070BE91...Meteorologists assess rainfall probabilities for August 10 using ensemble runs from NOAA’s Global Forecast System and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, which integrate current observations of moisture, instability, and steering patterns. On August 9, model consensus points to the position of any frontal boundaries or troughs that could trigger showers or thunderstorms, with precipitation thresholds tied to measurable amounts at specific stations. Traders watch for afternoon model updates and National Weather Service briefings that refine track and intensity details, as even modest shifts in low-level flow alter implied probabilities. Climatological baselines for mid-August rainfall help contextualize anomalies, while upcoming 00Z and 12Z cycles will provide the next key data releases.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions