The Parti Québécois maintains a clear lead in recent provincial polling aggregates, driven by sustained francophone support near 35-36% and a fragmented federalist vote split primarily between the Coalition Avenir Québec and Quebec Liberal Party. The CAQ, under new leader Christine Fréchette since April 2026, has narrowed the gap modestly in late-August surveys as the campaign opened on August 27, yet continues to face incumbency fatigue after nearly a decade in government. Seat projections from models such as 338Canada and The Writ place the PQ as the frontrunner to secure a plurality or minority government on October 5, with traders pricing in these dynamics at 71.5% implied probability. Smaller parties including the Conservatives and Québec solidaire register limited traction outside specific regions, further consolidating the PQ’s positioning in key ridings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedQuebec General Election Winner
Quebec General Election Winner
PQ 72%
CAQ 26%
PLQ 3.0%
PCQ <1%
$882,293 Vol.
$882,293 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
PQ
72%
CAQ
26%
PLQ
3%
PCQ
<1%
PVQ
<1%
QS
<1%
PQ 72%
CAQ 26%
PLQ 3.0%
PCQ <1%
$882,293 Vol.
$882,293 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
PQ
$117,201 Vol.
72%
CAQ
$136,308 Vol.
26%
PLQ
$123,318 Vol.
3%
PCQ
$241,422 Vol.
<1%
PVQ
$157,522 Vol.
<1%
QS
$106,523 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).The Parti Québécois maintains a clear lead in recent provincial polling aggregates, driven by sustained francophone support near 35-36% and a fragmented federalist vote split primarily between the Coalition Avenir Québec and Quebec Liberal Party. The CAQ, under new leader Christine Fréchette since April 2026, has narrowed the gap modestly in late-August surveys as the campaign opened on August 27, yet continues to face incumbency fatigue after nearly a decade in government. Seat projections from models such as 338Canada and The Writ place the PQ as the frontrunner to secure a plurality or minority government on October 5, with traders pricing in these dynamics at 71.5% implied probability. Smaller parties including the Conservatives and Québec solidaire register limited traction outside specific regions, further consolidating the PQ’s positioning in key ridings.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Market Opened: Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Volume
$882,293End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).The Parti Québécois maintains a clear lead in recent provincial polling aggregates, driven by sustained francophone support near 35-36% and a fragmented federalist vote split primarily between the Coalition Avenir Québec and Quebec Liberal Party. The CAQ, under new leader Christine Fréchette since April 2026, has narrowed the gap modestly in late-August surveys as the campaign opened on August 27, yet continues to face incumbency fatigue after nearly a decade in government. Seat projections from models such as 338Canada and The Writ place the PQ as the frontrunner to secure a plurality or minority government on October 5, with traders pricing in these dynamics at 71.5% implied probability. Smaller parties including the Conservatives and Québec solidaire register limited traction outside specific regions, further consolidating the PQ’s positioning in key ridings.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$882,293End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Parti Québécois maintains a clear lead in recent provincial polling aggregates, driven by sustained francophone support near 35-36% and a fragmented federalist vote split primarily between the Coalition Avenir Québec and Quebec Liberal Party. The CAQ, under new leader Christine Fréchette since April 2026, has narrowed the gap modestly in late-August surveys as the campaign opened on August 27, yet continues to face incumbency fatigue after nearly a decade in government. Seat projections from models such as 338Canada and The Writ place the PQ as the frontrunner to secure a plurality or minority government on October 5, with traders pricing in these dynamics at 71.5% implied probability. Smaller parties including the Conservatives and Québec solidaire register limited traction outside specific regions, further consolidating the PQ’s positioning in key ridings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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