Recent polling volatility and regional vote fragmentation are sustaining tight odds for third place in Quebec’s October 5 general election. The PQ leads overall at 28–30 percent, but the CAQ’s seven-point surge in the latest Synopsis survey to 27 percent—drawing support from both Liberals and undecided voters amid U.S. trade tensions—has narrowed the gap and positioned both parties ahead of the PLQ at 20–23 percent. The Liberals retain concentrated strength on Montreal Island yet trail elsewhere, while PCQ support near 14–16 percent and QS at 7–10 percent leave limited room for additional seat gains. With multiple three-way races and shifting second-choice preferences, traders see limited separation among PLQ, CAQ, and PCQ contenders for the third-highest seat total until later campaign developments clarify the map.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPLQ 55%
CAQ 25%
PCQ 10%
PQ 7%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
PLQ
55%
CAQ
30%
PCQ
10%
PQ
7%
QS
3%
PVQ
<1%
PLQ 55%
CAQ 25%
PCQ 10%
PQ 7%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
PLQ
$1,213 Vol.
55%
CAQ
$745 Vol.
30%
PCQ
$489 Vol.
10%
PQ
$924 Vol.
7%
QS
$868 Vol.
3%
PVQ
$474 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling volatility and regional vote fragmentation are sustaining tight odds for third place in Quebec’s October 5 general election. The PQ leads overall at 28–30 percent, but the CAQ’s seven-point surge in the latest Synopsis survey to 27 percent—drawing support from both Liberals and undecided voters amid U.S. trade tensions—has narrowed the gap and positioned both parties ahead of the PLQ at 20–23 percent. The Liberals retain concentrated strength on Montreal Island yet trail elsewhere, while PCQ support near 14–16 percent and QS at 7–10 percent leave limited room for additional seat gains. With multiple three-way races and shifting second-choice preferences, traders see limited separation among PLQ, CAQ, and PCQ contenders for the third-highest seat total until later campaign developments clarify the map.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 7:30 AM ET
Volume
$4,713End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 7:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling volatility and regional vote fragmentation are sustaining tight odds for third place in Quebec’s October 5 general election. The PQ leads overall at 28–30 percent, but the CAQ’s seven-point surge in the latest Synopsis survey to 27 percent—drawing support from both Liberals and undecided voters amid U.S. trade tensions—has narrowed the gap and positioned both parties ahead of the PLQ at 20–23 percent. The Liberals retain concentrated strength on Montreal Island yet trail elsewhere, while PCQ support near 14–16 percent and QS at 7–10 percent leave limited room for additional seat gains. With multiple three-way races and shifting second-choice preferences, traders see limited separation among PLQ, CAQ, and PCQ contenders for the third-highest seat total until later campaign developments clarify the map.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$4,713End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 7:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling volatility and regional vote fragmentation are sustaining tight odds for third place in Quebec’s October 5 general election. The PQ leads overall at 28–30 percent, but the CAQ’s seven-point surge in the latest Synopsis survey to 27 percent—drawing support from both Liberals and undecided voters amid U.S. trade tensions—has narrowed the gap and positioned both parties ahead of the PLQ at 20–23 percent. The Liberals retain concentrated strength on Montreal Island yet trail elsewhere, while PCQ support near 14–16 percent and QS at 7–10 percent leave limited room for additional seat gains. With multiple three-way races and shifting second-choice preferences, traders see limited separation among PLQ, CAQ, and PCQ contenders for the third-highest seat total until later campaign developments clarify the map.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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