Recent polling shows the Parti Québécois holding a narrow lead or statistical tie with the Coalition Avenir Québec ahead of the October 5 election, with popular support clustered near 28-30% for the PQ and similar figures for the CAQ after the latter’s recent gains. This volatility stems from francophone voter consolidation behind the PQ, efficient distribution of its support across ridings outside Montreal, and a split among federalist parties that fragments opposition votes. Tight contests in dozens of seats, combined with substantial numbers of undecided voters and shifting preferences amid trade tensions with the United States, keep seat outcomes clustered in the low-to-mid 50s. Further campaign developments on economic management, immigration policy, or leadership perceptions could widen or narrow the PQ’s projected plurality depending on how support consolidates before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<50 26%
50-54 20%
55-59 13%
65-69 11%
NEW
NEW
Oct 5, 2026
<50
21%
50-54
20%
55-59
13%
60-64
8%
65-69
11%
70-74
11%
75-79
3%
80+
4%
<50 26%
50-54 20%
55-59 13%
65-69 11%
NEW
NEW
Oct 5, 2026
<50
$1,065 Vol.
21%
50-54
$926 Vol.
20%
55-59
$423 Vol.
13%
60-64
$775 Vol.
8%
65-69
$2,484 Vol.
11%
70-74
$1,706 Vol.
11%
75-79
$956 Vol.
3%
80+
$839 Vol.
4%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling shows the Parti Québécois holding a narrow lead or statistical tie with the Coalition Avenir Québec ahead of the October 5 election, with popular support clustered near 28-30% for the PQ and similar figures for the CAQ after the latter’s recent gains. This volatility stems from francophone voter consolidation behind the PQ, efficient distribution of its support across ridings outside Montreal, and a split among federalist parties that fragments opposition votes. Tight contests in dozens of seats, combined with substantial numbers of undecided voters and shifting preferences amid trade tensions with the United States, keep seat outcomes clustered in the low-to-mid 50s. Further campaign developments on economic management, immigration policy, or leadership perceptions could widen or narrow the PQ’s projected plurality depending on how support consolidates before election day.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ET
Volume
$9,174End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling shows the Parti Québécois holding a narrow lead or statistical tie with the Coalition Avenir Québec ahead of the October 5 election, with popular support clustered near 28-30% for the PQ and similar figures for the CAQ after the latter’s recent gains. This volatility stems from francophone voter consolidation behind the PQ, efficient distribution of its support across ridings outside Montreal, and a split among federalist parties that fragments opposition votes. Tight contests in dozens of seats, combined with substantial numbers of undecided voters and shifting preferences amid trade tensions with the United States, keep seat outcomes clustered in the low-to-mid 50s. Further campaign developments on economic management, immigration policy, or leadership perceptions could widen or narrow the PQ’s projected plurality depending on how support consolidates before election day.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$9,174End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling shows the Parti Québécois holding a narrow lead or statistical tie with the Coalition Avenir Québec ahead of the October 5 election, with popular support clustered near 28-30% for the PQ and similar figures for the CAQ after the latter’s recent gains. This volatility stems from francophone voter consolidation behind the PQ, efficient distribution of its support across ridings outside Montreal, and a split among federalist parties that fragments opposition votes. Tight contests in dozens of seats, combined with substantial numbers of undecided voters and shifting preferences amid trade tensions with the United States, keep seat outcomes clustered in the low-to-mid 50s. Further campaign developments on economic management, immigration policy, or leadership perceptions could widen or narrow the PQ’s projected plurality depending on how support consolidates before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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