**Québec Solidaire maintains competitive positions in several Montreal and Quebec City ridings ahead of the October 5 provincial election, supporting trader expectations that the party will secure at least one seat.** Recent seat projections from aggregators such as 338Canada and Qc125 place QS between three and eleven seats, anchored by safe or likely holds in Gouin, Mercier, Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques, Hochelaga-Maisonneuve, and Taschereau. Current polling averages show the party at roughly 9–10 percent provincially—down from its 2022 result—yet its concentrated urban support and incumbency advantages in core districts sustain a path to representation. The campaign, which began after the writ drop on August 27, remains fluid amid shifting CAQ–PQ dynamics and a new electoral map, but no developments have materially eroded QS’s targeted ridings in the opening days. Market pricing reflects this localized resilience while incorporating uncertainty over final vote efficiency in a multi-party contest.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated90% chance
NEW
NEW
Oct 5, 2026
90% chance
NEW
NEW
Oct 5, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).**Québec Solidaire maintains competitive positions in several Montreal and Quebec City ridings ahead of the October 5 provincial election, supporting trader expectations that the party will secure at least one seat.** Recent seat projections from aggregators such as 338Canada and Qc125 place QS between three and eleven seats, anchored by safe or likely holds in Gouin, Mercier, Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques, Hochelaga-Maisonneuve, and Taschereau. Current polling averages show the party at roughly 9–10 percent provincially—down from its 2022 result—yet its concentrated urban support and incumbency advantages in core districts sustain a path to representation. The campaign, which began after the writ drop on August 27, remains fluid amid shifting CAQ–PQ dynamics and a new electoral map, but no developments have materially eroded QS’s targeted ridings in the opening days. Market pricing reflects this localized resilience while incorporating uncertainty over final vote efficiency in a multi-party contest.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 8:14 AM ET
Volume
$401End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:14 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).**Québec Solidaire maintains competitive positions in several Montreal and Quebec City ridings ahead of the October 5 provincial election, supporting trader expectations that the party will secure at least one seat.** Recent seat projections from aggregators such as 338Canada and Qc125 place QS between three and eleven seats, anchored by safe or likely holds in Gouin, Mercier, Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques, Hochelaga-Maisonneuve, and Taschereau. Current polling averages show the party at roughly 9–10 percent provincially—down from its 2022 result—yet its concentrated urban support and incumbency advantages in core districts sustain a path to representation. The campaign, which began after the writ drop on August 27, remains fluid amid shifting CAQ–PQ dynamics and a new electoral map, but no developments have materially eroded QS’s targeted ridings in the opening days. Market pricing reflects this localized resilience while incorporating uncertainty over final vote efficiency in a multi-party contest.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$401End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:14 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x65070BE91...**Québec Solidaire maintains competitive positions in several Montreal and Quebec City ridings ahead of the October 5 provincial election, supporting trader expectations that the party will secure at least one seat.** Recent seat projections from aggregators such as 338Canada and Qc125 place QS between three and eleven seats, anchored by safe or likely holds in Gouin, Mercier, Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques, Hochelaga-Maisonneuve, and Taschereau. Current polling averages show the party at roughly 9–10 percent provincially—down from its 2022 result—yet its concentrated urban support and incumbency advantages in core districts sustain a path to representation. The campaign, which began after the writ drop on August 27, remains fluid amid shifting CAQ–PQ dynamics and a new electoral map, but no developments have materially eroded QS’s targeted ridings in the opening days. Market pricing reflects this localized resilience while incorporating uncertainty over final vote efficiency in a multi-party contest.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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