**Recent polling and seat projections place the Parti Libéral du Québec (PLQ) in a narrow band of roughly 27–37 seats, aligning closely with the market’s highest-probability ranges of 28–35 and 32–35.** The election on October 5, 2026, features a fragmented vote where the PLQ draws strong consolidated support from anglophones and allophones (often exceeding 50% in those groups per Léger surveys) concentrated on the Island of Montreal. This geographic efficiency secures a base of safe ridings, yet the party’s francophone support remains low (around 14% in recent breakdowns), limiting expansion elsewhere. Late-August polls show the PLQ slipping to 20–23% province-wide as some support shifts toward the CAQ amid trade tensions with the U.S., while the PQ and CAQ remain statistically tied near the top. Aggregators such as 338Canada/Qc125 project a median of 31 seats for the PLQ with a relatively tight interval, reflecting uncertainty from the short campaign, regional riding-level variation, and potential late swings in francophone voting intentions. The tight market distribution captures this balance between the party’s reliable urban strongholds and its constrained path to additional gains in a competitive multi-party contest. Further movement could stem from upcoming poll releases, campaign focus on economic or sovereignty issues, or differential turnout in Montreal versus regional ridings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated32-35 29%
28-31 25%
<28 21%
36-39 20%
NEW
NEW
Oct 5, 2026
<28
21%
28-31
25%
32-35
29%
36-39
20%
40-43
6%
44+
6%
32-35 29%
28-31 25%
<28 21%
36-39 20%
NEW
NEW
Oct 5, 2026
<28
$2,043 Vol.
21%
28-31
$1,419 Vol.
25%
32-35
$959 Vol.
29%
36-39
$1,303 Vol.
20%
40-43
$829 Vol.
6%
44+
$615 Vol.
6%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti libéral du Québec (PLQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).**Recent polling and seat projections place the Parti Libéral du Québec (PLQ) in a narrow band of roughly 27–37 seats, aligning closely with the market’s highest-probability ranges of 28–35 and 32–35.**
The election on October 5, 2026, features a fragmented vote where the PLQ draws strong consolidated support from anglophones and allophones (often exceeding 50% in those groups per Léger surveys) concentrated on the Island of Montreal. This geographic efficiency secures a base of safe ridings, yet the party’s francophone support remains low (around 14% in recent breakdowns), limiting expansion elsewhere.
Late-August polls show the PLQ slipping to 20–23% province-wide as some support shifts toward the CAQ amid trade tensions with the U.S., while the PQ and CAQ remain statistically tied near the top. Aggregators such as 338Canada/Qc125 project a median of 31 seats for the PLQ with a relatively tight interval, reflecting uncertainty from the short campaign, regional riding-level variation, and potential late swings in francophone voting intentions.
The tight market distribution captures this balance between the party’s reliable urban strongholds and its constrained path to additional gains in a competitive multi-party contest. Further movement could stem from upcoming poll releases, campaign focus on economic or sovereignty issues, or differential turnout in Montreal versus regional ridings.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti libéral du Québec (PLQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti libéral du Québec (PLQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ET
Volume
$7,168End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti libéral du Québec (PLQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).**Recent polling and seat projections place the Parti Libéral du Québec (PLQ) in a narrow band of roughly 27–37 seats, aligning closely with the market’s highest-probability ranges of 28–35 and 32–35.**
The election on October 5, 2026, features a fragmented vote where the PLQ draws strong consolidated support from anglophones and allophones (often exceeding 50% in those groups per Léger surveys) concentrated on the Island of Montreal. This geographic efficiency secures a base of safe ridings, yet the party’s francophone support remains low (around 14% in recent breakdowns), limiting expansion elsewhere.
Late-August polls show the PLQ slipping to 20–23% province-wide as some support shifts toward the CAQ amid trade tensions with the U.S., while the PQ and CAQ remain statistically tied near the top. Aggregators such as 338Canada/Qc125 project a median of 31 seats for the PLQ with a relatively tight interval, reflecting uncertainty from the short campaign, regional riding-level variation, and potential late swings in francophone voting intentions.
The tight market distribution captures this balance between the party’s reliable urban strongholds and its constrained path to additional gains in a competitive multi-party contest. Further movement could stem from upcoming poll releases, campaign focus on economic or sovereignty issues, or differential turnout in Montreal versus regional ridings.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti libéral du Québec (PLQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti libéral du Québec (PLQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$7,168End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent polling and seat projections place the Parti Libéral du Québec (PLQ) in a narrow band of roughly 27–37 seats, aligning closely with the market’s highest-probability ranges of 28–35 and 32–35.** The election on October 5, 2026, features a fragmented vote where the PLQ draws strong consolidated support from anglophones and allophones (often exceeding 50% in those groups per Léger surveys) concentrated on the Island of Montreal. This geographic efficiency secures a base of safe ridings, yet the party’s francophone support remains low (around 14% in recent breakdowns), limiting expansion elsewhere. Late-August polls show the PLQ slipping to 20–23% province-wide as some support shifts toward the CAQ amid trade tensions with the U.S., while the PQ and CAQ remain statistically tied near the top. Aggregators such as 338Canada/Qc125 project a median of 31 seats for the PLQ with a relatively tight interval, reflecting uncertainty from the short campaign, regional riding-level variation, and potential late swings in francophone voting intentions. The tight market distribution captures this balance between the party’s reliable urban strongholds and its constrained path to additional gains in a competitive multi-party contest. Further movement could stem from upcoming poll releases, campaign focus on economic or sovereignty issues, or differential turnout in Montreal versus regional ridings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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