High advance voting, exceeding 21-23% of the roughly 270,000 eligible voters ahead of the August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession talks, combined with stronger-than-2024 parliamentary election participation rates in Reykjavík and other districts, positioned the 80-85% turnout range as the clear leader among traders. Final reported participation reached 82.5%, reflecting broad engagement driven by the close contest, fisheries policy concerns, and regional divides between urban Yes-leaning areas and rural No strongholds. This outcome aligns with the consensus pricing, where lower ranges like 65-70% or below carry reduced probability due to the absence of turnout suppression factors and the documented surge in early ballots.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated80–85% 98%
70–75% 39%
60–65% 24.5%
65–70% 24.1%
$1,427 Vol.
$1,427 Vol.
Aug 29, 2026
<45%
22%
45–50%
15%
50–55%
17%
55–60%
11%
60–65%
25%
65–70%
24%
70–75%
39%
75–80%
-
80–85%
75%
85%+
2%
80–85% 98%
70–75% 39%
60–65% 24.5%
65–70% 24.1%
$1,427 Vol.
$1,427 Vol.
Aug 29, 2026
<45%
$99 Vol.
22%
45–50%
$60 Vol.
15%
50–55%
$78 Vol.
17%
55–60%
$18 Vol.
11%
60–65%
$18 Vol.
25%
65–70%
$9 Vol.
24%
70–75%
$15 Vol.
39%
75–80%
$78 Vol.
-
80–85%
$255 Vol.
75%
85%+
$799 Vol.
2%
A referendum on Icelandic European Union membership negotiations is expected to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for this referendum, defined as the total number of votes cast, including blank and null votes reported, divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the referendum aren't known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.High advance voting, exceeding 21-23% of the roughly 270,000 eligible voters ahead of the August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession talks, combined with stronger-than-2024 parliamentary election participation rates in Reykjavík and other districts, positioned the 80-85% turnout range as the clear leader among traders. Final reported participation reached 82.5%, reflecting broad engagement driven by the close contest, fisheries policy concerns, and regional divides between urban Yes-leaning areas and rural No strongholds. This outcome aligns with the consensus pricing, where lower ranges like 65-70% or below carry reduced probability due to the absence of turnout suppression factors and the documented surge in early ballots.
A referendum on Icelandic European Union membership negotiations is expected to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for this referendum, defined as the total number of votes cast, including blank and null votes reported, divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the referendum aren't known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for this referendum, defined as the total number of votes cast, including blank and null votes reported, divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the referendum aren't known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 9:21 PM ET
Volume
$1,427End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 9:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A referendum on Icelandic European Union membership negotiations is expected to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for this referendum, defined as the total number of votes cast, including blank and null votes reported, divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the referendum aren't known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.High advance voting, exceeding 21-23% of the roughly 270,000 eligible voters ahead of the August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession talks, combined with stronger-than-2024 parliamentary election participation rates in Reykjavík and other districts, positioned the 80-85% turnout range as the clear leader among traders. Final reported participation reached 82.5%, reflecting broad engagement driven by the close contest, fisheries policy concerns, and regional divides between urban Yes-leaning areas and rural No strongholds. This outcome aligns with the consensus pricing, where lower ranges like 65-70% or below carry reduced probability due to the absence of turnout suppression factors and the documented surge in early ballots.
A referendum on Icelandic European Union membership negotiations is expected to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for this referendum, defined as the total number of votes cast, including blank and null votes reported, divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the referendum aren't known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for this referendum, defined as the total number of votes cast, including blank and null votes reported, divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the referendum aren't known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$1,427End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 9:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...High advance voting, exceeding 21-23% of the roughly 270,000 eligible voters ahead of the August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession talks, combined with stronger-than-2024 parliamentary election participation rates in Reykjavík and other districts, positioned the 80-85% turnout range as the clear leader among traders. Final reported participation reached 82.5%, reflecting broad engagement driven by the close contest, fisheries policy concerns, and regional divides between urban Yes-leaning areas and rural No strongholds. This outcome aligns with the consensus pricing, where lower ranges like 65-70% or below carry reduced probability due to the absence of turnout suppression factors and the documented surge in early ballots.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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