Recent numerical weather prediction models, including runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and GFS, show Warsaw's minimum temperature on August 31 hovering near 15–17 °C amid partly cloudy skies, light southwesterly winds, and scattered showers that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. These conditions produce the tight clustering around 17 °C (38.5 %), 15 °C (35.5 %), and 16 °C (27.5 %) in trader pricing, as small shifts in cloud cover or dew-point depression can alter the overnight low by 1–2 °C. Historical August minima near 14–16 °C provide context, yet current guidance favors values above the long-term average owing to residual warm advection. Updated model outputs and observational data from the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management will refine the range before market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Warsaw on August 31?
Lowest temperature in Warsaw on August 31?
20°C or higher 55%
17°C 38%
15°C 31%
16°C 30%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
3%
12°C
<1%
13°C
9%
14°C
26%
15°C
31%
16°C
30%
17°C
38%
18°C
18%
19°C
16%
20°C or higher
55%
20°C or higher 55%
17°C 38%
15°C 31%
16°C 30%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
10°C or below
$0 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$130 Vol.
3%
12°C
$145 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$48 Vol.
9%
14°C
$0 Vol.
26%
15°C
$0 Vol.
31%
16°C
$0 Vol.
30%
17°C
$0 Vol.
38%
18°C
$0 Vol.
18%
19°C
$0 Vol.
16%
20°C or higher
$155 Vol.
55%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models, including runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and GFS, show Warsaw's minimum temperature on August 31 hovering near 15–17 °C amid partly cloudy skies, light southwesterly winds, and scattered showers that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. These conditions produce the tight clustering around 17 °C (38.5 %), 15 °C (35.5 %), and 16 °C (27.5 %) in trader pricing, as small shifts in cloud cover or dew-point depression can alter the overnight low by 1–2 °C. Historical August minima near 14–16 °C provide context, yet current guidance favors values above the long-term average owing to residual warm advection. Updated model outputs and observational data from the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management will refine the range before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$478End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models, including runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and GFS, show Warsaw's minimum temperature on August 31 hovering near 15–17 °C amid partly cloudy skies, light southwesterly winds, and scattered showers that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. These conditions produce the tight clustering around 17 °C (38.5 %), 15 °C (35.5 %), and 16 °C (27.5 %) in trader pricing, as small shifts in cloud cover or dew-point depression can alter the overnight low by 1–2 °C. Historical August minima near 14–16 °C provide context, yet current guidance favors values above the long-term average owing to residual warm advection. Updated model outputs and observational data from the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management will refine the range before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$478End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent numerical weather prediction models, including runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and GFS, show Warsaw's minimum temperature on August 31 hovering near 15–17 °C amid partly cloudy skies, light southwesterly winds, and scattered showers that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. These conditions produce the tight clustering around 17 °C (38.5 %), 15 °C (35.5 %), and 16 °C (27.5 %) in trader pricing, as small shifts in cloud cover or dew-point depression can alter the overnight low by 1–2 °C. Historical August minima near 14–16 °C provide context, yet current guidance favors values above the long-term average owing to residual warm advection. Updated model outputs and observational data from the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management will refine the range before market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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