Latest numerical weather prediction ensembles from GFS and ECMWF indicate a minimum temperature near 15–16°C for Warsaw on September 1 under partly cloudy skies and moderate westerly flow advecting maritime air. This consensus underpins the tight clustering of trader probabilities around the 15°C and 16°C outcomes while the leading 12°C-or-below bin captures residual model spread and the potential for enhanced nocturnal cooling if cloud cover decreases. Historical early-September lows average 13–15°C, providing context for the current market-implied odds near 45–55% for the warmer bins amid genuine forecast uncertainty. Next ECMWF and GFS runs, plus local observations, will refine the minimum ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Warsaw on September 1?
Lowest temperature in Warsaw on September 1?
12°C or below 37%
15°C 31%
16°C 29%
17°C 26%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
12°C or below
37%
13°C
9%
14°C
21%
15°C
31%
16°C
29%
17°C
26%
18°C
2%
19°C
21%
20°C
8%
21°C
8%
22°C or higher
8%
12°C or below 37%
15°C 31%
16°C 29%
17°C 26%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
12°C or below
$49 Vol.
37%
13°C
$0 Vol.
9%
14°C
$0 Vol.
21%
15°C
$0 Vol.
31%
16°C
$0 Vol.
29%
17°C
$0 Vol.
26%
18°C
$0 Vol.
2%
19°C
$0 Vol.
21%
20°C
$10 Vol.
8%
21°C
$5 Vol.
8%
22°C or higher
$225 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction ensembles from GFS and ECMWF indicate a minimum temperature near 15–16°C for Warsaw on September 1 under partly cloudy skies and moderate westerly flow advecting maritime air. This consensus underpins the tight clustering of trader probabilities around the 15°C and 16°C outcomes while the leading 12°C-or-below bin captures residual model spread and the potential for enhanced nocturnal cooling if cloud cover decreases. Historical early-September lows average 13–15°C, providing context for the current market-implied odds near 45–55% for the warmer bins amid genuine forecast uncertainty. Next ECMWF and GFS runs, plus local observations, will refine the minimum ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$289End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction ensembles from GFS and ECMWF indicate a minimum temperature near 15–16°C for Warsaw on September 1 under partly cloudy skies and moderate westerly flow advecting maritime air. This consensus underpins the tight clustering of trader probabilities around the 15°C and 16°C outcomes while the leading 12°C-or-below bin captures residual model spread and the potential for enhanced nocturnal cooling if cloud cover decreases. Historical early-September lows average 13–15°C, providing context for the current market-implied odds near 45–55% for the warmer bins amid genuine forecast uncertainty. Next ECMWF and GFS runs, plus local observations, will refine the minimum ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$289End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest numerical weather prediction ensembles from GFS and ECMWF indicate a minimum temperature near 15–16°C for Warsaw on September 1 under partly cloudy skies and moderate westerly flow advecting maritime air. This consensus underpins the tight clustering of trader probabilities around the 15°C and 16°C outcomes while the leading 12°C-or-below bin captures residual model spread and the potential for enhanced nocturnal cooling if cloud cover decreases. Historical early-September lows average 13–15°C, providing context for the current market-implied odds near 45–55% for the warmer bins amid genuine forecast uncertainty. Next ECMWF and GFS runs, plus local observations, will refine the minimum ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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