Persistent cloud cover, high humidity, and widespread rainfall tied to the remnants of a tropical low (formerly Typhoon Shadell) are keeping Shenzhen’s overnight radiative cooling minimal, anchoring the Aug 31 minimum near 26–27 °C according to official and ensemble guidance. Light northeasterly winds and dew points near 25 °C further limit temperature drops, while embedded heavy showers may locally suppress readings slightly lower. Model consensus shows only modest spread between 25–27 °C lows, with the market’s near-even pricing on 26 °C and 27 °C reflecting this narrow uncertainty window; fresh NMC or ECMWF runs tonight could shift probabilities if rain timing or wind shifts alter the minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shenzhen on August 31?
Lowest temperature in Shenzhen on August 31?
22°C or below 81%
28°C 48%
26°C 48%
27°C 45%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
22°C or below
81%
23°C
45%
24°C
44%
25°C
38%
26°C
48%
27°C
45%
28°C
48%
29°C
42%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
22°C or below 81%
28°C 48%
26°C 48%
27°C 45%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
22°C or below
$140 Vol.
81%
23°C
$0 Vol.
45%
24°C
$0 Vol.
44%
25°C
$0 Vol.
38%
26°C
$0 Vol.
48%
27°C
$0 Vol.
45%
28°C
$0 Vol.
48%
29°C
$188 Vol.
42%
30°C
$75 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$67 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$130 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent cloud cover, high humidity, and widespread rainfall tied to the remnants of a tropical low (formerly Typhoon Shadell) are keeping Shenzhen’s overnight radiative cooling minimal, anchoring the Aug 31 minimum near 26–27 °C according to official and ensemble guidance. Light northeasterly winds and dew points near 25 °C further limit temperature drops, while embedded heavy showers may locally suppress readings slightly lower. Model consensus shows only modest spread between 25–27 °C lows, with the market’s near-even pricing on 26 °C and 27 °C reflecting this narrow uncertainty window; fresh NMC or ECMWF runs tonight could shift probabilities if rain timing or wind shifts alter the minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$600End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent cloud cover, high humidity, and widespread rainfall tied to the remnants of a tropical low (formerly Typhoon Shadell) are keeping Shenzhen’s overnight radiative cooling minimal, anchoring the Aug 31 minimum near 26–27 °C according to official and ensemble guidance. Light northeasterly winds and dew points near 25 °C further limit temperature drops, while embedded heavy showers may locally suppress readings slightly lower. Model consensus shows only modest spread between 25–27 °C lows, with the market’s near-even pricing on 26 °C and 27 °C reflecting this narrow uncertainty window; fresh NMC or ECMWF runs tonight could shift probabilities if rain timing or wind shifts alter the minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$600End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent cloud cover, high humidity, and widespread rainfall tied to the remnants of a tropical low (formerly Typhoon Shadell) are keeping Shenzhen’s overnight radiative cooling minimal, anchoring the Aug 31 minimum near 26–27 °C according to official and ensemble guidance. Light northeasterly winds and dew points near 25 °C further limit temperature drops, while embedded heavy showers may locally suppress readings slightly lower. Model consensus shows only modest spread between 25–27 °C lows, with the market’s near-even pricing on 26 °C and 27 °C reflecting this narrow uncertainty window; fresh NMC or ECMWF runs tonight could shift probabilities if rain timing or wind shifts alter the minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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