**Forecast consensus from official meteorological guidance supports the market's strong 93% implied probability on a 23°C low for Chengdu on August 30, 2026.** Late-summer conditions in the Sichuan Basin, including light winds, high humidity, and limited overnight radiative cooling under variable cloud cover, have produced minimum temperatures stabilizing near this level in recent model runs and observations. Multiple forecasts converge on nighttime lows of 22–24°C, consistent with climatological norms for the date and the absence of strong cold-air advection or clear-sky extremes. Traders have priced in this outcome heavily because deviations would require atypical shifts such as denser low-level cloud decks raising the minimum or unexpectedly clear skies allowing further cooling below 22°C. Updated observations through the evening and any final China Meteorological Administration adjustments remain the key variables that could still influence resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Chengdu on August 30?
Lowest temperature in Chengdu on August 30?
23°C 99.5%
20°C 1.0%
21°C 1.0%
22°C 1.0%
$2,269 Vol.
$2,269 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
18°C or below
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
Yes
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C or higher
No
23°C 99.5%
20°C 1.0%
21°C 1.0%
22°C 1.0%
$2,269 Vol.
$2,269 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
18°C or below
$195 Vol.
No
19°C
$246 Vol.
No
20°C
$39 Vol.
No
21°C
$34 Vol.
No
22°C
$44 Vol.
No
23°C
$106 Vol.
Yes
24°C
$305 Vol.
No
25°C
$382 Vol.
No
26°C
$187 Vol.
No
27°C
$310 Vol.
No
28°C or higher
$420 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from official meteorological guidance supports the market's strong 93% implied probability on a 23°C low for Chengdu on August 30, 2026.** Late-summer conditions in the Sichuan Basin, including light winds, high humidity, and limited overnight radiative cooling under variable cloud cover, have produced minimum temperatures stabilizing near this level in recent model runs and observations. Multiple forecasts converge on nighttime lows of 22–24°C, consistent with climatological norms for the date and the absence of strong cold-air advection or clear-sky extremes. Traders have priced in this outcome heavily because deviations would require atypical shifts such as denser low-level cloud decks raising the minimum or unexpectedly clear skies allowing further cooling below 22°C. Updated observations through the evening and any final China Meteorological Administration adjustments remain the key variables that could still influence resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$2,269End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from official meteorological guidance supports the market's strong 93% implied probability on a 23°C low for Chengdu on August 30, 2026.** Late-summer conditions in the Sichuan Basin, including light winds, high humidity, and limited overnight radiative cooling under variable cloud cover, have produced minimum temperatures stabilizing near this level in recent model runs and observations. Multiple forecasts converge on nighttime lows of 22–24°C, consistent with climatological norms for the date and the absence of strong cold-air advection or clear-sky extremes. Traders have priced in this outcome heavily because deviations would require atypical shifts such as denser low-level cloud decks raising the minimum or unexpectedly clear skies allowing further cooling below 22°C. Updated observations through the evening and any final China Meteorological Administration adjustments remain the key variables that could still influence resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,269End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Forecast consensus from official meteorological guidance supports the market's strong 93% implied probability on a 23°C low for Chengdu on August 30, 2026.** Late-summer conditions in the Sichuan Basin, including light winds, high humidity, and limited overnight radiative cooling under variable cloud cover, have produced minimum temperatures stabilizing near this level in recent model runs and observations. Multiple forecasts converge on nighttime lows of 22–24°C, consistent with climatological norms for the date and the absence of strong cold-air advection or clear-sky extremes. Traders have priced in this outcome heavily because deviations would require atypical shifts such as denser low-level cloud decks raising the minimum or unexpectedly clear skies allowing further cooling below 22°C. Updated observations through the evening and any final China Meteorological Administration adjustments remain the key variables that could still influence resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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