**Clear, calm overnight conditions and a recent cool-down trend are positioning Ankara's August 31 low near or below the long-term average of ~16°C.** Forecasts from sources including Yr.no, WeatherBug, and Turkish meteorological services indicate light northerly to northeasterly winds, mostly clear skies, and low dew points overnight, which promote strong radiative cooling after sunset on the 30th. This setup typically allows temperatures to drop more than on cloudy or windier nights. Recent observations show Ankara running cooler than seasonal norms, with the August 30 high around 23–26°C versus the typical 31°C, consistent with a transient northerly flow. Model consensus points to a low in the 13–17°C range, but slight differences in timing of wind shifts and cloud cover introduce uncertainty that supports the market's spread. The elevated implied probability on 11°C or below (41.5%) reflects trader emphasis on the potential for enhanced cooling under these stable, dry conditions, while probabilities clustered around 12–14°C capture the central forecast range. Higher outcomes above 17°C carry low odds given the current pattern. Updated model runs and local observations on the morning of the 31st will be key near-term drivers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Ankara on August 31?
Lowest temperature in Ankara on August 31?
11°C or below 42%
14°C 28%
12°C 27%
13°C 26%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
11°C or below
42%
12°C
27%
13°C
26%
14°C
28%
15°C
13%
16°C
26%
17°C
9%
18°C
2%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C or higher
<1%
11°C or below 42%
14°C 28%
12°C 27%
13°C 26%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
11°C or below
$0 Vol.
42%
12°C
$0 Vol.
27%
13°C
$0 Vol.
26%
14°C
$0 Vol.
28%
15°C
$0 Vol.
13%
16°C
$0 Vol.
26%
17°C
$5 Vol.
9%
18°C
$54 Vol.
2%
19°C
$5 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$5 Vol.
<1%
21°C or higher
$100 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Clear, calm overnight conditions and a recent cool-down trend are positioning Ankara's August 31 low near or below the long-term average of ~16°C.**
Forecasts from sources including Yr.no, WeatherBug, and Turkish meteorological services indicate light northerly to northeasterly winds, mostly clear skies, and low dew points overnight, which promote strong radiative cooling after sunset on the 30th. This setup typically allows temperatures to drop more than on cloudy or windier nights. Recent observations show Ankara running cooler than seasonal norms, with the August 30 high around 23–26°C versus the typical 31°C, consistent with a transient northerly flow.
Model consensus points to a low in the 13–17°C range, but slight differences in timing of wind shifts and cloud cover introduce uncertainty that supports the market's spread. The elevated implied probability on 11°C or below (41.5%) reflects trader emphasis on the potential for enhanced cooling under these stable, dry conditions, while probabilities clustered around 12–14°C capture the central forecast range. Higher outcomes above 17°C carry low odds given the current pattern. Updated model runs and local observations on the morning of the 31st will be key near-term drivers.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$169End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Clear, calm overnight conditions and a recent cool-down trend are positioning Ankara's August 31 low near or below the long-term average of ~16°C.**
Forecasts from sources including Yr.no, WeatherBug, and Turkish meteorological services indicate light northerly to northeasterly winds, mostly clear skies, and low dew points overnight, which promote strong radiative cooling after sunset on the 30th. This setup typically allows temperatures to drop more than on cloudy or windier nights. Recent observations show Ankara running cooler than seasonal norms, with the August 30 high around 23–26°C versus the typical 31°C, consistent with a transient northerly flow.
Model consensus points to a low in the 13–17°C range, but slight differences in timing of wind shifts and cloud cover introduce uncertainty that supports the market's spread. The elevated implied probability on 11°C or below (41.5%) reflects trader emphasis on the potential for enhanced cooling under these stable, dry conditions, while probabilities clustered around 12–14°C capture the central forecast range. Higher outcomes above 17°C carry low odds given the current pattern. Updated model runs and local observations on the morning of the 31st will be key near-term drivers.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$169End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Clear, calm overnight conditions and a recent cool-down trend are positioning Ankara's August 31 low near or below the long-term average of ~16°C.** Forecasts from sources including Yr.no, WeatherBug, and Turkish meteorological services indicate light northerly to northeasterly winds, mostly clear skies, and low dew points overnight, which promote strong radiative cooling after sunset on the 30th. This setup typically allows temperatures to drop more than on cloudy or windier nights. Recent observations show Ankara running cooler than seasonal norms, with the August 30 high around 23–26°C versus the typical 31°C, consistent with a transient northerly flow. Model consensus points to a low in the 13–17°C range, but slight differences in timing of wind shifts and cloud cover introduce uncertainty that supports the market's spread. The elevated implied probability on 11°C or below (41.5%) reflects trader emphasis on the potential for enhanced cooling under these stable, dry conditions, while probabilities clustered around 12–14°C capture the central forecast range. Higher outcomes above 17°C carry low odds given the current pattern. Updated model runs and local observations on the morning of the 31st will be key near-term drivers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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