Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF, GFS, and Météo-France show Paris maximum temperatures on September 1 centering near 23°C, with model spreads commonly spanning 22–25°C under light westerly flow, variable high cloud, and modest diurnal heating. This supports the market’s tight clustering between the 23°C (42%) and 24°C (35%) outcomes, as small differences in boundary-layer mixing, insolation timing, or residual Atlantic moisture can shift the daily peak by 1°C. Historical climatology for early September places normals around 22–24°C, so current guidance reflects near-average conditions without strong warm or cool anomalies. Traders appear to weigh the latest high-resolution runs most heavily, with limited volatility expected until the final 24–48 hours when local observations tighten the range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Paris on September 1?
Highest temperature in Paris on September 1?
23°C 42%
24°C 36%
22°C 15%
25°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
20°C or below
3%
21°C
5%
22°C
15%
23°C
42%
24°C
36%
25°C
7%
26°C
2%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
23°C 42%
24°C 36%
22°C 15%
25°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
20°C or below
$81 Vol.
3%
21°C
$0 Vol.
5%
22°C
$58 Vol.
15%
23°C
$227 Vol.
42%
24°C
$557 Vol.
36%
25°C
$32 Vol.
7%
26°C
$5 Vol.
2%
27°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
30°C or higher
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF, GFS, and Météo-France show Paris maximum temperatures on September 1 centering near 23°C, with model spreads commonly spanning 22–25°C under light westerly flow, variable high cloud, and modest diurnal heating. This supports the market’s tight clustering between the 23°C (42%) and 24°C (35%) outcomes, as small differences in boundary-layer mixing, insolation timing, or residual Atlantic moisture can shift the daily peak by 1°C. Historical climatology for early September places normals around 22–24°C, so current guidance reflects near-average conditions without strong warm or cool anomalies. Traders appear to weigh the latest high-resolution runs most heavily, with limited volatility expected until the final 24–48 hours when local observations tighten the range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 30, 2026, 12:55 AM ET
Volume
$960End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF, GFS, and Météo-France show Paris maximum temperatures on September 1 centering near 23°C, with model spreads commonly spanning 22–25°C under light westerly flow, variable high cloud, and modest diurnal heating. This supports the market’s tight clustering between the 23°C (42%) and 24°C (35%) outcomes, as small differences in boundary-layer mixing, insolation timing, or residual Atlantic moisture can shift the daily peak by 1°C. Historical climatology for early September places normals around 22–24°C, so current guidance reflects near-average conditions without strong warm or cool anomalies. Traders appear to weigh the latest high-resolution runs most heavily, with limited volatility expected until the final 24–48 hours when local observations tighten the range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$960End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF, GFS, and Météo-France show Paris maximum temperatures on September 1 centering near 23°C, with model spreads commonly spanning 22–25°C under light westerly flow, variable high cloud, and modest diurnal heating. This supports the market’s tight clustering between the 23°C (42%) and 24°C (35%) outcomes, as small differences in boundary-layer mixing, insolation timing, or residual Atlantic moisture can shift the daily peak by 1°C. Historical climatology for early September places normals around 22–24°C, so current guidance reflects near-average conditions without strong warm or cool anomalies. Traders appear to weigh the latest high-resolution runs most heavily, with limited volatility expected until the final 24–48 hours when local observations tighten the range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions