Official AEMET-linked station data and regional monitoring networks recorded a daily maximum of 29.3°C in Madrid on August 29, 2026, following the unusually cool 21–25°C readings of August 28 under a strengthening anticyclone. This placed the outcome squarely at the 30°C market threshold after accounting for standard rounding and station consensus. Historical climatology shows late-August averages near 30.5°C, so the observed value aligned closely with norms once the brief cool anomaly lifted. The 100% market-implied probability reflects verified post-event observations rather than forecasts, though minor discrepancies in final validated records or station-specific readings could still shift resolution if thresholds are applied strictly.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on August 29?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 29?
30°C 100.0%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$41,725 Vol.
$41,725 Vol.
Aug 29, 2026
25°C or below
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
Yes
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C or higher
No
30°C 100.0%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$41,725 Vol.
$41,725 Vol.
Aug 29, 2026
25°C or below
$638 Vol.
No
26°C
$321 Vol.
No
27°C
$727 Vol.
No
28°C
$2,473 Vol.
No
29°C
$3,834 Vol.
No
30°C
$11,955 Vol.
Yes
31°C
$12,106 Vol.
No
32°C
$4,775 Vol.
No
33°C
$2,923 Vol.
No
34°C
$937 Vol.
No
35°C or higher
$1,036 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official AEMET-linked station data and regional monitoring networks recorded a daily maximum of 29.3°C in Madrid on August 29, 2026, following the unusually cool 21–25°C readings of August 28 under a strengthening anticyclone. This placed the outcome squarely at the 30°C market threshold after accounting for standard rounding and station consensus. Historical climatology shows late-August averages near 30.5°C, so the observed value aligned closely with norms once the brief cool anomaly lifted. The 100% market-implied probability reflects verified post-event observations rather than forecasts, though minor discrepancies in final validated records or station-specific readings could still shift resolution if thresholds are applied strictly.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$41,725End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official AEMET-linked station data and regional monitoring networks recorded a daily maximum of 29.3°C in Madrid on August 29, 2026, following the unusually cool 21–25°C readings of August 28 under a strengthening anticyclone. This placed the outcome squarely at the 30°C market threshold after accounting for standard rounding and station consensus. Historical climatology shows late-August averages near 30.5°C, so the observed value aligned closely with norms once the brief cool anomaly lifted. The 100% market-implied probability reflects verified post-event observations rather than forecasts, though minor discrepancies in final validated records or station-specific readings could still shift resolution if thresholds are applied strictly.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$41,725End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Official AEMET-linked station data and regional monitoring networks recorded a daily maximum of 29.3°C in Madrid on August 29, 2026, following the unusually cool 21–25°C readings of August 28 under a strengthening anticyclone. This placed the outcome squarely at the 30°C market threshold after accounting for standard rounding and station consensus. Historical climatology shows late-August averages near 30.5°C, so the observed value aligned closely with norms once the brief cool anomaly lifted. The 100% market-implied probability reflects verified post-event observations rather than forecasts, though minor discrepancies in final validated records or station-specific readings could still shift resolution if thresholds are applied strictly.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions