Latest ensemble forecasts indicate a daytime high near 34–35°C in Madrid on September 1 under persistent high pressure and light southerly flow, driving the tight market split between those two outcomes. Mostly sunny conditions and minimal cloud cover are expected to support peak readings in the mid-afternoon, consistent with current model consensus from sources like the ECMWF and GFS. This setup reflects limited seasonal cooling relative to the long-term average high of about 30°C for the date, while historical extremes above 34°C remain possible but less favored. Traders appear to weigh these near-term variables heavily, with any shifts in wind or insolation in the final model updates likely to tip the implied probabilities between the leading bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on September 1?
Highest temperature in Madrid on September 1?
35°C 46%
34°C 41%
33°C 8%
36°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
30°C or below
<1%
31°C
1%
32°C
4%
33°C
8%
34°C
41%
35°C
46%
36°C
6%
37°C
2%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C or higher
<1%
35°C 46%
34°C 41%
33°C 8%
36°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
30°C or below
$162 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$10 Vol.
1%
32°C
$5 Vol.
4%
33°C
$0 Vol.
8%
34°C
$105 Vol.
41%
35°C
$307 Vol.
46%
36°C
$7 Vol.
6%
37°C
$4 Vol.
2%
38°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
39°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
40°C or higher
$158 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts indicate a daytime high near 34–35°C in Madrid on September 1 under persistent high pressure and light southerly flow, driving the tight market split between those two outcomes. Mostly sunny conditions and minimal cloud cover are expected to support peak readings in the mid-afternoon, consistent with current model consensus from sources like the ECMWF and GFS. This setup reflects limited seasonal cooling relative to the long-term average high of about 30°C for the date, while historical extremes above 34°C remain possible but less favored. Traders appear to weigh these near-term variables heavily, with any shifts in wind or insolation in the final model updates likely to tip the implied probabilities between the leading bins.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 30, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$758End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts indicate a daytime high near 34–35°C in Madrid on September 1 under persistent high pressure and light southerly flow, driving the tight market split between those two outcomes. Mostly sunny conditions and minimal cloud cover are expected to support peak readings in the mid-afternoon, consistent with current model consensus from sources like the ECMWF and GFS. This setup reflects limited seasonal cooling relative to the long-term average high of about 30°C for the date, while historical extremes above 34°C remain possible but less favored. Traders appear to weigh these near-term variables heavily, with any shifts in wind or insolation in the final model updates likely to tip the implied probabilities between the leading bins.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$758End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts indicate a daytime high near 34–35°C in Madrid on September 1 under persistent high pressure and light southerly flow, driving the tight market split between those two outcomes. Mostly sunny conditions and minimal cloud cover are expected to support peak readings in the mid-afternoon, consistent with current model consensus from sources like the ECMWF and GFS. This setup reflects limited seasonal cooling relative to the long-term average high of about 30°C for the date, while historical extremes above 34°C remain possible but less favored. Traders appear to weigh these near-term variables heavily, with any shifts in wind or insolation in the final model updates likely to tip the implied probabilities between the leading bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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