**Current short-range forecasts from AEMET and major models indicate a clear, dry night over Madrid with light northerly winds and low humidity, supporting radiative cooling that typically brings the daily minimum to 18–19 °C on 31 August.** This places the most probable outcome near the 18 °C market tier while allowing modest downside risk if boundary-layer mixing remains weaker than expected or dew points fall further overnight. Historical late-August climatology shows average lows near 18 °C, and the absence of clouds or fronts keeps the distribution tightly centered around that value. Traders have priced the 16 °C-or-below and 17 °C bins highest because ensemble spreads still include a few cooler members, yet official guidance and recent model runs continue to favor the upper end of the 16–19 °C range. Updated forecasts through the evening of 30 August will be the next key input before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Madrid on August 31?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on August 31?
16°C or below 45%
17°C 28%
18°C 11%
19°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
16°C or below
45%
17°C
28%
18°C
11%
19°C
10%
20°C
1%
21°C
5%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C or higher
<1%
16°C or below 45%
17°C 28%
18°C 11%
19°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
16°C or below
$8 Vol.
45%
17°C
$0 Vol.
28%
18°C
$0 Vol.
11%
19°C
$28 Vol.
10%
20°C
$275 Vol.
1%
21°C
$0 Vol.
5%
22°C
$5 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$5 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$320 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$5 Vol.
<1%
26°C or higher
$405 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current short-range forecasts from AEMET and major models indicate a clear, dry night over Madrid with light northerly winds and low humidity, supporting radiative cooling that typically brings the daily minimum to 18–19 °C on 31 August.**
This places the most probable outcome near the 18 °C market tier while allowing modest downside risk if boundary-layer mixing remains weaker than expected or dew points fall further overnight. Historical late-August climatology shows average lows near 18 °C, and the absence of clouds or fronts keeps the distribution tightly centered around that value. Traders have priced the 16 °C-or-below and 17 °C bins highest because ensemble spreads still include a few cooler members, yet official guidance and recent model runs continue to favor the upper end of the 16–19 °C range. Updated forecasts through the evening of 30 August will be the next key input before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$1,051End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current short-range forecasts from AEMET and major models indicate a clear, dry night over Madrid with light northerly winds and low humidity, supporting radiative cooling that typically brings the daily minimum to 18–19 °C on 31 August.**
This places the most probable outcome near the 18 °C market tier while allowing modest downside risk if boundary-layer mixing remains weaker than expected or dew points fall further overnight. Historical late-August climatology shows average lows near 18 °C, and the absence of clouds or fronts keeps the distribution tightly centered around that value. Traders have priced the 16 °C-or-below and 17 °C bins highest because ensemble spreads still include a few cooler members, yet official guidance and recent model runs continue to favor the upper end of the 16–19 °C range. Updated forecasts through the evening of 30 August will be the next key input before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,051End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current short-range forecasts from AEMET and major models indicate a clear, dry night over Madrid with light northerly winds and low humidity, supporting radiative cooling that typically brings the daily minimum to 18–19 °C on 31 August.** This places the most probable outcome near the 18 °C market tier while allowing modest downside risk if boundary-layer mixing remains weaker than expected or dew points fall further overnight. Historical late-August climatology shows average lows near 18 °C, and the absence of clouds or fronts keeps the distribution tightly centered around that value. Traders have priced the 16 °C-or-below and 17 °C bins highest because ensemble spreads still include a few cooler members, yet official guidance and recent model runs continue to favor the upper end of the 16–19 °C range. Updated forecasts through the evening of 30 August will be the next key input before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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