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icon for Highest temperature in Houston on August 4?

Highest temperature in Houston on August 4?

icon for Highest temperature in Houston on August 4?

Highest temperature in Houston on August 4?

Aug 4

Aug 5

Aug 4

Aug 5

96-97°F 54%

94-95°F 30%

98-99°F 13%

92-93°F 5.3%

Polymarket
NEW

$13,758 Vol.

96-97°F 54%

94-95°F 30%

98-99°F 13%

92-93°F 5.3%

Polymarket
NEW

$13,758 Vol.

87°F or below

$307 Vol.

<1%

88-89°F

$357 Vol.

<1%

90-91°F

$547 Vol.

1%

92-93°F

$1,266 Vol.

5%

94-95°F

$3,385 Vol.

30%

96-97°F

$3,165 Vol.

54%

98-99°F

$2,596 Vol.

13%

100-101°F

$747 Vol.

<1%

102-103°F

$330 Vol.

1%

104-105°F

$498 Vol.

<1%

106°F or higher

$592 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance positions Houston’s August 4 high in the upper 90s, with 96–97 °F emerging as the consensus range amid a post-heat-wave pattern shift. A subtle influx of drier mid-level air and an earlier-than-normal sea-breeze circulation are limiting afternoon mixing and capping temperatures just below the triple-digit readings seen late July, while abundant Gulf moisture keeps heat-index values elevated. Historical climatology shows early-August highs averaging near 94–95 °F, providing context for why probabilities cluster tightly around 94–99 °F. Updated short-range runs through the morning of August 4 will refine the precise maximum before resolution.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$13,758
End Date
Aug 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance positions Houston’s August 4 high in the upper 90s, with 96–97 °F emerging as the consensus range amid a post-heat-wave pattern shift. A subtle influx of drier mid-level air and an earlier-than-normal sea-breeze circulation are limiting afternoon mixing and capping temperatures just below the triple-digit readings seen late July, while abundant Gulf moisture keeps heat-index values elevated. Historical climatology shows early-August highs averaging near 94–95 °F, providing context for why probabilities cluster tightly around 94–99 °F. Updated short-range runs through the morning of August 4 will refine the precise maximum before resolution.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$13,758
End Date
Aug 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Houston on August 4?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "96-97°F" at 54%, followed by "94-95°F" at 30%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 54¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 54% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Highest temperature in Houston on August 4?" has generated $13.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 2, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Houston on August 4?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Houston on August 4?" is "96-97°F" at 54%, meaning the market assigns a 54% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "94-95°F" at 30%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Houston on August 4?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.